影响中国碳排放绩效的区域特征研究——基于熵值法的聚类分析

论文选择影响碳排放绩效的主要指标,基于熵值法确定各指标权重,采用系统聚类分析的方法,以中国省域为研究对象,将全国分为7类区域。分析结果显示:区域分工特征是造成目前中国省级碳排放绩效区域差异的主要影响因素,其次是高碳产业工艺特征和能源结构特征,而经济结构对解释省级碳排放绩效区域差异的贡献有限。北方地区高碳产品生产份额高且工艺水平相对低,能源消费中极高的煤炭比例加重了负面影响,造成其二氧化碳排放绩效水平低,特别是华北地区;近年来东南沿海地区高碳产业也逐步增加,但由于其工艺先进,在一定程度上抵消了高碳产品份额高的负面影响;中西部地区目前高碳产品份额虽然低于东部地区,但工艺水平也低,造成了其低水平的二氧化碳排放绩效。由于各省历史发展、自然资源禀赋、区域分工角色等因素不同,且遵从经济宏观发展客观规律和经济区位理论,除了少数发达地区之外,中国其他区域短时间内很难改变其经济和能源结构,低碳政策制定的重点应放在提高高碳产业工艺水平方面。

Research on Regional Characteristics of China’s Carbon Emission Performance Based on Entropy Method and Cluster Analysis

The main influencing factors of carbon emission performance include economic structure, energy consumption structure, regional division of work and technical level of high-carbon industry. Although these indicators are in a certain degree of influence on CO₂ emissions per unit of GDP, it is difficult to measure the contribution of each indicator. In this paper, we selected the four main indicators mentioned, according to the entropy method to measure the weight of each indicator, applying multi-indicators cluster analysis methods under the index system, and dividing the whole country into 7 typical areas. The analysis result shows: the characteristic of the regional division of work, which has the largest weight of 0.4567, is the main factor resulting in regional differences in China’s provincial carbon emissions performance, then the energy structure and the technical characteristics of high carbon industry take the second place. The indicator of economic structure, with a weight of 0.0971, has a limited contribution to explain the regional differences at the provincial level of carbon emissions. In northern regions, the high share of high-carbon production market and low technical level results in low carbon emission performance. Especially in North China, the high proportion of coal in the energy consumption has a negative effect on carbon emission performance; in southeast coastal areas, due to its advanced technology, the negative effect from high share of high-carbon production has been offset to some degree; although the share of high-carbon production in central and western China is much lower than in the eastern regions at present, yet the technical level is low. The carbon emission performance decreased with a backward technical level. There are differences among the historical development of provinces; natural resource endowment and regional division of work, complying with the macroeconomic development of objective laws and economic location theory, in addition to a small number of developed areas, the other regions in China are difficult to change their economic and energy structure in a short period of time. The low-carbon policies should be focused on improving the technical level of high-carbon industries.