质疑：“红旗河”调水功能的可行性

据报道,“红旗河”方案确定的基本目标是由雅鲁藏布江、怒江、澜沧江、金沙江、雅砻江、大渡河调水600亿m³至新疆等干旱区,发展2亿亩农田（1亩=1/15 hm²）,建15万~20万km²绿带,以此彻底改善西北干旱区的生态与环境。“红旗河”通过上述河流的各调水点以上的年均径流量总和为1 444亿m³,占被调水河流总径流量的35%;“红旗河”计划年调水量约占可调水量1 444亿m³的42%。如果不考虑国际河流、调水口以下的水电站及工程的正常运行等因素,单纯就水资源而论,600亿m³总调水量是可行的。“红旗河”是跨流域调水的宏大设想,已经引起国内外的广泛关注,但这个宏大的设想也面临地质、技术、经济、社会、生态等领域的多重严峻挑战,存在极大的不确定性。特别是600亿m³的水能解决什么问题?在实施工程之前应该充分论证,采取有效措施防范和减轻这些风险带来的危害。从自然地理、资源环境和区域发展角度看,以下问题值得商榷：从主要受水区域新疆看,依据现有农田的净灌溉定额（大约600 m³/亩）,即使完全不考虑渠道（干渠及农田灌溉支渠）中途渗漏与水面蒸发,理论上最多发展1亿亩农田。同样,根据新疆为了维持塔里木河下游大海子水库以下的511 km²湿地所调用的水量估算,15万km²生态绿带建设每年至少需水1 100多亿 m³。600亿m³引水量既无法实现建造2亿亩农田的需要,也无法满足15万km²生态绿带的需要,二者同时实现更无可能。何况这600亿m³的水要经过6 000多km的长途跋涉,渗漏和蒸发非常大,最终能有多少水达到受水区?该项目计划建设期10 a、投资4万亿元,每亩农田（以2亿亩计算）2万元,每m³水费近66元。工程建成运行时,谁来为昂贵的水费买单?调水可能引起的环境影响和生态后果具有极大的不确定性,需要给予高度关注。如调入区是内流区,降水量小,蒸发量大,地形封闭,缺乏排水出路,环境条件特殊。大量引水,在灌溉不当的情况下,极易导致土壤次生盐渍化。跨流域调水工程不仅仅是一个复杂的水利工程,还是一个十分复杂的生态系统工程,更是一个十分复杂的社会经济工程。环境效应、生态后果和社会经济影响涉及复杂的地球物理、化学和生物过程,也涉及复杂的人地关系和谐平衡过程。“红旗河”同时涉及国际河流,潜在的地缘政治关系需要引起重视。在现有认识水平下,需要对这些问题进行深入系统研究,分析各系统之间的相互关系及影响规律,提出理性的评价系统和论证方案。此外,在“红旗河”的舆论造势中,还存在几个有悖科学认知的观点,如“改变中国气候格局”、“森林致水作用”、打破千百年来的“胡焕庸线”等。文章均进行了分析和澄清。

The Query: The Feasibility of the Water Diversion Function of “Hongqi River”

It is reported that the basic goal of the “Hongqi River” Project (also known as “Red Flag River” Project) is to improve the ecological and environmental conditions of dry areas in the Northwest China by transfering water from the Yarlung Zangbo River, the Nu River, the Lancang River, the Jinsha River, the Yalong River and the Dadu River in the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) Plateau, to Xinjiang and other arid areas. By this way, 200 million mu (around 13.33×10⁴ km²) of farmland and oasis could be developed in the dry areas.“Hongqi River” Project is a grand idea of water diversion across river basins, which has attracted wide attention at home and abroad. However, this grand idea also faces multiple severe challenges in the fields of geology, technology, economy, society and ecology, and there is a great uncertainty.From the perspective of physical geography, natural resources and environment and regional development, 60 billion m³ of water cannot meet the needs of the construction of 200 million mu of farmland, nor can it meet the needs of the ecological green belt of 15×10⁴ km², and the two cannot be realized at the same time. In addition, how much water can reach the receiving area when there is strong leakage and evaporation along the river? The project is planned to be built for 10 years, with investment of 4 trillion yuan. The investment of farmland irrigation per mu is around 2×10⁴ yuan, and the water charge per cubic meter is nearly 66 yuan. Who will pay for the expensive water bill when the project is completed and running?The environmental impacts and ecological consequences caused by water diversion are of great uncertainty and need to be highly concerned. The water diversion project is not only a complex water conservancy project, but also a very complex ecosystem engineering, and a very complicated social and economic project. Environmental effects, ecological consequences and socioeconomic effects involve complex geophysical, chemical and biological processes, as well as the complex process of harmonious balance between human and earth relations. The “Hongqi River” Project involves international rivers at the same time. The potential geopolitical risks need to be drawn attention. At the existing level of understanding, it is necessary to make a thorough and systematic study of these problems.In addition, in the public awareness of “Hongqi River”, there are still several views that are contrary to scientific cognition, such as “changing the climate pattern of China”, “forest causing precipitation”, and breaking the “Hu Huanyong Line”. The analysis and clarification for these misunderstandings are carried out in the paper.