吉林省泥石流易发区的降雨特征分析

吉林省东南部侵蚀山地为泥石流主要活动区,泥石流在海拔1 km以下的低山丘陵地区经常发生,并多与暴雨洪流伴生。论文基于GIS平台,应用ArcGIS对吉林省泥石流事件发生区的高程、坡度、土地利用和土壤类型进行分析,绘制吉林省泥石流易发区分布图。通过专家评分法对发生区高程、坡度、土壤类型和土地利用类型进行定量化评分,并采用自组织映射聚类分析法和灰色聚类的优选排序法,将泥石流易发区有记录的泥石流事件依据当日降雨（J₁）、连日累计降雨（J₂）、前7 d累计降雨（J₃）、高程（J₄）、坡度（J₅）、土壤类型（J₆）和土地利用（J₇）7种影响因子进行划分,最终把事件分为3类,绘制不同自然地理特征条件下吉林省降雨诱发泥石流区划图,为地质灾害治理提供参考。

Rainfall Characteristics in Debris Flow Prone Areas of Jilin Province

In the southeast of Jilin Province, the debris flows mostly occurred in the low mountain and hilly area where the altitude is lower than 1 000 m, and are always associated with rainstorms. The physical geographical features of the debris flow-prone areas in Jilin Province were analyzed based on the GIS (Geographic Information System) platform, and the distribution of the debris flow prone areas in Jilin Province was drawn. The elevation, slope, soil types and land uses in the study area were evaluated by the experts, and the self-organizing cluster analysis and grey cluster method were used to classify the debris flows. Debris flow events were divided according to the date of rainfall (J₁), days of cumulative rainfall (J₂), cumulative rainfall in 7 days before debris flow (J₃), height (J₄) , slope (J₅), soil type (J₆) and land use (J₇). Finally, the events were divided into three categories, and the zoning map of rainfall induced debris flows in Jilin Province was drawn, which provides a reference for managing geological disasters.