碳汇补贴和碳税政策对林业经济的影响研究——基于CGE的分析

林业是减缓和适应气候变化的有效途径和重要手段,但林业活动既能固碳增汇,也会排放CO2。因此,基于价格的碳汇补贴或碳税政策至关重要。论文通过构建以林业为核算对象的可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型,利用2010年的中国投入产出等数据,自行编制包含林业在内的社会核算矩阵表(SAM),然后进行不同碳价格下(设定为40、300和400元/t C)的情景模拟,考察了碳汇补贴和碳税对林业经济(林业产出、林产品消费)的影响。结果表明:1当碳价格为40元/t时,碳汇补贴和碳税政策的实施将使当期林业产出增加0.006 7%(0.174×108元),林产品价格提高2.7%,林业部门增加值投入增加0.37%(6.57×108元),居民消费减少(0.11×108元)。2当碳价格为300元/t时,碳汇补贴和碳税的实施使当期林业产出减少0.019%(0.49×108元),林产品价格下降20.87%,林业部门增加值投入减少0.45%(7.99×108元),居民消费增加(0.10×108元);当碳价格为400元/t时,呈现出相近的态势。研究表明,在一个合理的碳价格区间内,政府出台相关的碳补贴和碳税政策能够促进森林碳汇的发展。

Impact of Carbon Sequestration Subsidy and Carbon Tax Policy on Forestry Economy—Based on CGE Model

Forestry is an effective way and important means to mitigate and adapt to climate change; however, forestry activities can not only sequester carbon but also release CO₂. It is therefore important to formulate carbon subsidy and carbon taxation policies on the basis of the price of carbon. In this study, a forestry-based Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model is built by using input- output data of China in 2010 to construct a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM). The model simulates different carbon price scenarios, and explores the effects of carbon subsidy and carbon taxation policies on forestry economy. The main results can be summarized as follows: 1) When the price of carbon is set at 40 yuan/t, the carbon subsidy and carbon taxation policies would increase forestry output by 0.0067% (17.4 million yuan), forestry products price by 2.7%, value- added investment by 0.37% (657 million yuan), and decrease the residents' consumption by 11 million yuan. 2) When the price of carbon is set at 300 yuan/t, the policies would decrease forestry output by 0.019% (49 million yuan), forestry products price by 20.87%, and value-added investment by 0.45% (799 million yuan), but would increase the residents' consumption by 10 million yuan. The carbon price of 400 yuan/t tends to generate effects similar to those under the 300 yuan/t scenario. In light of these results, relevant suggested policies are proposed correspondingly.