高耗水工业用水量控制和水价调整政策效果研究:基于水资源动态CGE的分析

论文应用水资源动态CGE模型,研究和分析了高耗水工业不同水资源管理政策对经济、社会和水资源利用的影响。文章首先构建了将水资源作为生产要素的CGE模型,并建立了动态机制,然后以2010年为基准年模拟和分析了2010—2020年间高耗水工业用水量控制和水价上涨不同情景下的影响。分析表明:高耗水工业的水量控制比水价调整对宏观经济的影响大,表现为GDP和居民福利的显著下降以及投资的大幅度上升;而高耗水工业水价上升对宏观经济的影响较小,表现为GDP的小幅度上升以及居民福利的小幅度下降和投资的上升;对部门的影响比较复杂,但高耗水工业水量下降和水价上升,都将导致其产出降低。对水资源利用的影响显示,水量控制和水价上升对用水总量的影响较小,但对提高工业用水效率都十分显著。

Policy Effectiveness of Water Volume Control and Pricing Regulation in Water-intensive Industries in China: A Dynamic CGE Analysis

The paper researched the impacts of different water resources management policies in water-intensive industries on economy, society and water use in China, in order to provide a macro-policy analysis for decision-making. The water resources dynamic CGE model incor-porating water resources as element was developed and the recursive dynamic mechanism was introduced. After data-procession, SAM construction, and calibration, the model was used to simulate the impacts of different scenarios of water use control and water price increase in water-intensive industries from 2010 to 2020. The control over water use in water-intensive industries will significantly reduce GDP year-by-year, decrease consumer welfare and increase investment in the long term. Under the 30% decrease of sectoral water use scenario, there will be 14.48% decrease in GDP, 8.44% decrease in consumer welfare and 34.13% increase in investment in 2020. The outputs and consumptions will decrease in most sectors, but they will increase in less water-depending sectors, with changes between 3.90% - -22.28% in 2020, under the 30% decrease of water use scenario. The impact on export will be less than that on import. The water use control will have a little impact on total water use but it will have significant impact on water use efficiency. The annual total water use will reduce about 5×10⁸ m³ and water use per 10 000 yuan industrial value-added will decrease 26.8%-28.6% under the 30% decrease of water use scenario from 2010 to 2020. The water price increase in water-intensive industries will increase GDP year-by-year, but the increase is not significant. It will decrease consumer welfare and increase investment. Under the 30% increase of water price in water-intensive industries, there will be 1.36% increase in GDP, 3.50% decrease in welfare, and 12.17% increase in investment in 2020. The sectoral outputs will change significantly in 2020, ranging between -40.71%-19.45%. The consumption of each sector will greatly reduce except for the consumption of service sector. The imports and exports of each sector will change greatly too. The water price increase will significantly reduce water use in water-intensive industries and slightly increase water use in other sectors, and greatly improve water use efficiency. Under the 30% increase of water price scenario, the water uses in sectors of the water-intensive industries will reduce 0.5%-1.5%, and the water use in other sectors will increase less than 0.5%. The water use per 10 000 yuan industrial value-added will decrease 28.4%-30.7% under the 30% increase of water price scenario from 2010 to 2020.