中国粮食生产区域集中化的演化趋势

农业生产的区域专业化与地域分工是农业现代化的一个重要标志,也是未来中国农业发展的必由之路。受农业生产市场化程度以及耕地保护、农业补贴、价格保护等政策因素的影响,中国目前区域专业化的方向和地域分工取向尚不清晰,不过农产品生产的集中化趋势却为回答这一问题提供了重要线索。论文以稻谷、小麦和玉米3种主要粮食作物为研究对象,利用省域单元1981—2013年的产量数据,运用集中化指数方法揭示1980年以来中国粮食生产区域集中化程度的演变特征和演化趋势。结果表明：中国粮食生产的集中化程度明显上升,3种粮食作物中小麦生产的集中化程度最高,并呈相对稳定的集中化趋势,而稻谷和玉米生产的集中化程度则经历了一个“U”型变化过程,意味着稻谷和玉米生产在这一阶段发生了空间重组;依据集中化趋势,稻谷生产向黑龙江、湖南、江西等地集中,小麦生产向河南、山东、安徽等传统小麦产区集中,玉米生产则向黑龙江、内蒙古等地集中,预示未来极有可能在这些地区及其周边形成专业化粮食产区。加强这些地区的农田基本建设将有助于推进中国粮食生产的地区专业化与地域分工。

Evolution Trend of Regional Centralization of Grain Production in China

Regional specialization and regional division are important symbols of agricultural modernization. And they are also unavoidable for China’s agricultural development in the future. Since it is influenced by marketization of agricultural production and some policy factors such as cultivated land protection, agricultural subsidies and price protection, currently the direction of regional specialization and regional division is unclear in China. However, the centralized trend of agricultural production provides important clues to this question. In this paper, three main grain crops, rice, wheat and corn, are taken as the research object. Based on the provincial grain production in China from 1981 to 2013, the centralization index was adopted to reveal the evolution characteristics and evolution trend of regional centralization of the grain production in China. The results indicated that the centralization degree of grain production increased obviously. Besides, wheat production had the highest degree of centralization among the three grain crops, and presented a stable trend of centralization. However, the centralization degrees of rice and corn production both experienced a U-shaped change process, illustrating that rice and corn production had undergone space restructuring during this period. According to the trend, rice production centralized in Heilongjiang, Hunan and Jiangxi; wheat production centralized in Henan, Shandong, Anhui and other traditional wheat production regions; and corn production centralized in Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia. Those results implied that specialized regions of grain production were likely to be formed in these areas and the surroundings. Strengthening the basic construction of farmland in these areas will help to promote regional specialization and regional division of China’s grain production.