基于气候指标评估气候变化对海南旅游的影响

基于1965-2012 年海南5 市(县)气象站的逐日观测数据,构建一个新旅游气候指标,用以定量评估海南各地区的旅游气候资源,并考察其对气候变化的响应特征。结果表明:①近48 a 来各市县理想旅游条件频率以波动下降趋势为主;全年三亚限制旅游的主导因子是风,其余地区是体感温度;除了五指山理想条件频率呈单峰型季节分布外,其余地区为双峰型。②冬季到初春气候变暖对三亚影响不大,但将明显改善其他地区旅游气候条件;除五指山外,气候变暖将使其他地区夏季、初秋旅游条件处于劣势。全年来看气候变暖对海口、三亚与昌江的旅游舒适度弊大于利。③三亚、琼海及昌江夏季、初秋若湿度加大,将有利于提高旅游舒适度,这与降水频次有关;冬季湿度加大也助于改善五指山的旅游条件。④所构建的定量指标可较好表征海南各地旅游气候资源状况,并可评估其对气候变化的响应特征。统计分析表明旅游气候条件与气候变化、地理环境密切相关。

Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Hainan Tourism Based on a Climate-Resolving Index

Based on daily observation data (temperature, wind, relative humidity and visibility) of five cities and counties in Hainan during 1965 to 2012, the paper develops a New Climate Index for Tourism (NCIT). This index is used to quantitatively evaluate the regional tourism climate resources in Hainan, and investigate the impact of climate change on tourism. It turns out that: 1) The annual frequencies of ideal tourism weather conditions in the five cities and counties all show downward trend with fluctuations; the dominant factor affecting tourism condition in Sanya is wind, and it is apparent temperature in the rest of cities; the seasonal distribution of the frequency of ideal tourism weather condition in Wuzhishan is unimodal, while it is bimodal in other cities. 2) In winter and earlier spring, the climate warming has little influence on the tourism condition of Sanya, but it'll obviously improve the tourism climate environment of other places; in summer and early autumn, the tourism condition are generally in disadvantage conditions except in Wuzhishan; for the full-year, climate warming does more harm than good to the tourism comfort degree in Haikou, Sanya and Changjiang. 3) In summer and early autumn, the increase of humidity in Sanya, Qionghai and Changjiang will improve the tourism comfort degree due to the frequency of the rainfall; however the humidity increase in winter will benefit the tourism condition of Wuzhishan. 4) The new climate-resolving index for tourism not only shows the characteristics of tourism climate resources in different parts of Hainan, but also can be used to evaluate the effects of climate change on tourism climate resources. Statistical analysis shows that the tourism climate conditions are closely related to the climate change and geographical environment.