煤炭生产基地的发展阶段识别与演变——以济宁煤炭基地为例

煤炭资源储量与生产能力的时间关系与空间关系决定了煤炭基地的发展阶段及演变路径,如何识别煤炭基地的发展阶段和资源枯竭水平,对区域发展有重要影响。论文设计了煤炭基地发展阶段的识别模型,阐述济宁煤炭基地发展的时间路径,以资源剩余储量比重为核心,以产能规模、服务年限等指标为辅,定量识别济宁煤炭基地的生命周期,刻画各阶段的关键指标与主要特征,重点识别资源枯竭的时间点;基于空间视角,从煤矿井、煤炭产能与产量、资源枯竭程度等角度分析煤炭基地的内部空间分异;从时间-空间视角,综合分析济宁煤炭基地生命周期的发展规律,包括过去、目前与未来的各种情景。研究发现,济宁煤炭基地形成了明显的生命周期,1958—1995年为起始阶段,1996—2010年为成长阶段,2011—2020年为成熟阶段,2020年进入枯竭阶段,目前进入煤炭开采高峰期,20世纪50年代至21世纪80年代济宁煤炭开采呈现从两个核心区（兖州煤田和滕南煤田）向四周进行持续扩张并随后逐步萎缩枯竭的过程。

Evolution and Lifecycle Identification of Coal Base:A Case Study of Jining

The temporal-spatial relationship between coal resources reserves and production capacity directly determine the development stages and evolving path of coal base. How to scientifically identify the development stage of coal base and depletion level of coal resources has important significance on regional development. We designed the model for identifying development stage of coal base. The model takes proportion of surplus resources as a key indicator, and product capacity and service time as auxiliary indicators. It describes the main features in each phase; especially it can identify the time point of resources depletion. Furthermore, we analyzed the interior spatial differentiation of coal base from the perspectives of amount, production capacity, output, and depletion level of coal mines. Finally, we integrated the spatial and temporal views to probe the regularities of coal base’s lifecycle. The result shows that Jining coal base displays a classic lifecycle with four phases, including starting phase (1958-1995), growing phase (1996-2010), mature phase (2011-2020) and depleting phase (2021-2089). It has significant feature of long infancy, short middle and long old ages. The distribution of coal mines and their capacities and depletion levels resulted in the interior spatial differentiation in Jining coal base. During the lifecycle, the resources exploitation firstly expanded outward from two core regions (Yanzhou Coal Field and Tengnan Coal Field), subsequently will be followed by continuously shrinking and depletion. This research details the lifecycle regularity of resources base. The integrated analysis in temporal and spatial views of evolution and developing phase enriched the studies on resources base and resources-based city.