基于遥感估产的2006—2015年青海果洛与玉树地区草畜平衡分析

三江源区草地资源丰富,开展草畜平衡研究,可为草原环境保护和区域经济可持续发展提供决策支持。论文以青海省果洛藏族自治州和玉树藏族自治州作为研究区,基于产草量反演和载畜量计算,结合草畜平衡指数和草地载畜压力指数两大指标开展草畜平衡分析。结果表明：2006—2013年两自治州的平均草畜平衡指数自47.1%变化至-13.8%,草畜平衡状况整体在不断改善,2014—2015年超载情况有所加重;相比于果洛藏族自治州的年均草畜平衡指数为38.15%,玉树藏族自治州的年均草畜平衡指数为33.51%,草畜平衡状况较好。建议两地区有关部门加强规划和政策调控,按照“以草定畜”的原则加强草畜平衡精细化管理,并以大数据驱动草畜平衡决策支持信息化建设。

Balance Analysis between Forage and Livestock Based on Grassland Production Estimation by Remote Sensing in Golog and Yushu Region,Qinghai, China during 2006-2015

The Three-River Source Region is rich in grassland resources, and research of balance between forage and livestock can provide decision support for grassland environmental protection and sustainable development of regional economy. In this paper, Golog and Yushu Tibetan Autonomous Prefectures in Qinghai Province, China were selected as the study area. The grassland production was retrieved using model and the carrying capacity was calculated. Then, balance analysis between forage and livestock was carried out by combining balance index between grassland and livestock (BGLI) and index of grazing pressure (I_p). The result shows that the balance status between forage and livestock in the two autonomous prefectures has been constantly improved from 2006 (BGLI is 47.1%) to 2013 (BGLI is -13.8%), however, the status deteriorated partly during 2014-2015. Compared to Golog Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture (average BGLI is 38.15%), the Yushu Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture (average BGLI is 33.51%) is better in balance status. In the end, the research suggested that relevant departments in the two autonomous prefectures should strengthen planning and policy regulation, strengthen the fine management of livestock balance in accordance with the “grass livestock” principle, and build decision support information system of livestock balance driven by big data.