四川单季稻产量对气候变化的敏感性和脆弱性研究

基于1981—2012年25个四川气象台站气象观测数据和单季稻生产数据,建立单季稻产量变化和各气候要素变化的一元线性和逐步回归方程,探讨四川单季稻产量对单个气候要素及气候变化的敏感性与脆弱性,为科学开展适应行动提供基础信息。结果表明：四川单季稻产量随气温上升1 ℃、日较差升高1 ℃、降水量下降100 mm、辐射量下降100 MJ/m²发生了相应反应,部分地区的单季稻产量表现为脆弱,气温升高导致单季稻产量脆弱的地区最多,日较差次之,太阳辐射和降水量偏少;单季稻产量对抽穗至成熟期的气温升高和辐射下降最敏感,而对移栽至分蘖期的日较差升高最敏感。受到6种气候要素变化的综合影响,各站点单季稻产量对气候变化均表现为敏感,其中50%的地区表现为脆弱;单季稻产量对移栽至分蘖期和抽穗至成熟期的气候变化表现最敏感。不同地区、不同生育期内气候变化对单季稻产量的影响存在差异,因此,需要因地制宜地解决气候变化带来的不利影响,同时抓住水稻关键生育期有利的气候资源,有效地保障四川水稻的安全生产。

Study on the Sensitivity and Vulnerability of Single Cropping Rice Yield to Climate Change in Sichuan

Based on the meteorological data and single cropping rice production at 25 meteorological stations spreading over the single cropping rice growing regions of Sichuan Province during 1981-2012, the sensitivity and vulnerability of single cropping rice yield to climatic factors and climate change were estimated by using the regression relationships between single cropping rice yield and related climatic variables. The results showed that the air temperature during the growing season of single cropping rice increased from 1981 to 2012, meanwhile the precipitation and solar radiation showed decreased. With 1 ℃ increase of air temperature, 1 ℃ increase of diurnal temperature range, 100 mm decrease of precipitation and 100 MJ/m² decrease of radiation, the yield of single cropping rice in many areas declined. The area vulnerable to temperature change is the largest, and that to the change of diurnal temperature range is the second largest. The responses of single cropping rice yield to climatic factors mainly occurred at the stages from heading to maturity and from transplanting to tillering. The single cropping rice yield at all observed stations are sensitive to the combined effects of the six climatic variables, but only 50% areas are vulnerable. About 43% of rice yield variation was caused by climate change in recent 30 years. There were great differences in the responses of single cropping rice yield to the climatic factors at different stations and different growth stages. Therefore, we need to avoid the negative impacts of climate change and make good use of favorable climatic resources during important rice growing periods based on local conditions, in order to ensure the rice production safety in Sichuan Province.