大豆传统产区种植结构变化及影响因素的定量化评价——以黑龙江省嫩江县为例

东北地区,特别是黑龙江省是中国传统的大豆产区,其近年的种植结构变化导致国内大豆产量大幅度减少,而进口量持续增加,并已成为全球第一大豆进口国。为探究大豆传统产区种植结构变化现状及主要影响因素,论文以黑龙江省嫩江县为研究区,解译遥感影像分析其种植结构的演变过程,并以农户大豆种植意愿为因变量,对影响因素进行定量化评价。研究结果表明：1）2000年以来,研究区种植结构发生了较大调整,2000-2007年间,第四积温带大豆种植面积大幅度增加;2007-2014年第四、五积温带玉米种植面积大幅度增加,达到17.4×10⁴ hm²,且有继续北扩趋势,而大豆北扩东移,2014年在粮食作物总播种面积中的比重较2000年减少27个百分点;2）目标价格政策对农户大豆种植意愿的影响度最大,达18.89%,其次大豆市场价格和轮作种植的影响度均达18.54%,大豆总投入的影响度为13.82%,其他因素影响度均在10%以下。国产大豆的竞争优势在于“非转基因”和“食用蛋白豆”,国家除了在政策上扶持大豆生产外,更重要的是要鼓励相关企业生产多样化的“非转基因”大豆制品,并严控转基因大豆进入食品领域,使加工企业和豆农获得合理溢价,通过市场机制提高大豆传统产区豆农的生产积极性。

Changes of Planting Structure and Quantitative Evaluation of Influencing Factors in Traditional Soybean Producing Areas: Taking Nenjiang County in Heilongjiang Province as an Example

Northeast China, especially Heilongjiang Province, is a traditional soybean producing areas, where planting structure changes have resulted in decline in domestic soybean production. However, imports of soybean continued to rise in China, and China has become the world’s first soybean importer. To explore the planting structure changes and the main influencing factors in traditional soybean producing areas, this paper selected Nenjiang County as the study area. Firstly, interpreting TM/OLI images gave the changes of planting structure in this area; secondly, quantitative evaluation on the influence factors was made by taking soybean farmers’ willingness as dependent variable. The results show that: 1) The planting structure in the study area has greatly changed since 2000. Soybean acreage increased dramatically in the fourth accumulated temperature zone during 2000-2007. Maize planting area increased in the fourth and fifth accumulated temperature zones during 2000-2014, and has a tendency to continuously expand northward. Although soybean planting area expanded northward and eastward, its areal proportion in the total grain sown area decreased by 27% in 2014 compared to 2000. 2) The target price policy has the maximum influence on the willingness of farmers’ planting soybeans, accounting for 18.86%, followed by soybean price and crop rotation, which take 18.52%, and the impact of total investment of soybean accounts for 13.81%. The influences of other factors all count for less than 10%. The competitive advantages of domestic soybeans are “non-GMO” and “edible protein”. In addition to the policies for supporting soybean production, the country should take more important strategies to encourage the relevant enterprises to diversify the non-GMO soybean products, and strictly control the transgenic soybean in the field of food. These strategies enable reasonable premium for processing enterprises and soybean farmers and improve farmers’ production enthusiasm in traditional soybean producing area through market mechanism.