辽宁沿海地区用水效率与经济的耦合协调发展评价

论文构建辽宁沿海经济带用水效率与经济耦合协调发展评价指标体系，首先运用改进的突变模型对2001—2010 年辽宁沿海经济带用水效率和经济发展各子系统进行状态评估，其次运用耦合协调模型对辽宁沿海经济带各市用水效率与经济发展的耦合协调度进行评价。研究结果表明：①辽宁沿海经济带整体用水效率与经济发展耦合度水平从0.437 提高到0.498，呈缓慢提高状态，但一直处于拮抗阶段。用水效率水平与经济发展水平差距不断减小，耦合协调度从0.254 增大到0.408，呈增大趋势但仍处于中低度协调水平；②辽宁沿海经济带各市用水效率与经济发展都处于上升趋势，其中用水效率最好的为大连市，用水效率评估值已达到0.887，其次为锦州、营口和葫芦岛，丹东和盘锦市用水效率处于最低水平，分别为0.604和0.535。经济发展水平最高的为大连市，其次为营口和盘锦市，丹东、锦州和葫芦岛较差； ③各市耦合度均处于拮抗阶段，并且处于上升趋势。大连市和营口市耦合协调度2010年已分别达到0.457 和0.401，已从低度协调进入中度协调且呈不断上升趋势，丹东、锦州、盘锦和葫芦岛均处于低度协调阶段，呈波动式上升。各市的经济发展滞后于水资源利用效率的提高，导致耦合协调度一直处于中低度协调水平；④辽宁沿海经济带耦合度和协调度的区域差距在不断减小，经济带协同发展趋势越加明显。

Evaluation of the Coupling Coordination Development between Water Use Efficiency and Economy in Liaoning Coastal Economic Belt

This paper builds the evaluation indicator system for water use efficiency and coordinated development of economy coupling in Liaoning coastal economic belt (LCEB). Firstly, using improved mutation model to evaluate status of LCEB water use efficiency and the economic development of each subsystem from 2001 to 2010. Secondly, using coupling coordination model to evaluate water use efficiency and the coupling coordination degree of economic development of every city of LCEB. The results show that the coupling degree of water use efficiency and the economic development of LCEB increased from 0.437 to 0.498, which is slowly improving, but it has been in the stage of resisting. The gap of water use efficiency and economic development level decreases continuously, and the coupling coordination degree increased from 0.254 to 0.408, which showed a trend of increase but still at the mid-low level of coordination. Water use efficiency and economic growth of every city of LCEB are in a rising trend, water use efficiency of Dalian is the best with an evaluation value reaching 0.887, Jinzhou, Yingkou and Huludao are in the second place, Dandong and Panjin at the worst level with evaluation values being 0.604 and 0.535. The economic development level of Dalian is the highest, Yingkou and Panjin are at intermediate level, Dandong, Jinzhou and Huludao are at the lowest level. The coupling degree of every city in the stage of resisting, and in a rising trend. The coupling coordination degree of Dalian and Yingkou have reached 0.457 and 0.401, and entered the stage of moderate coordination from low-grade coordination phase,and showed a rising trend. The coupling coordination degree of Dandong, Jinzhou, Panjin and Huludao still at the low level of coordination and showed a fluctuated increase.The economic development of every city falls behind the improvement of the efficiency in water usage, which causes the coupling coordination being in the mid-low grade period. The regional disparities among the coupling degree and coordination degree of LCEB are decreasing, and the coordinated development trend of economic belt becomes more and more apparent.