国内外能源价格对我国能源消耗的综合调节作用比较研究

基于1978-2012年国内外能源价格、产业发展以及我国能源消耗的相关数据,通过构建一般调节作用模型和状态空间模型比较了国内外能源价格对我国能源消耗的作用路径以及静态和动态作用效力,结果表明：仅考虑单一路径时,国内外能源价格均难以对我国能源消耗起到有效的调节作用,但综合考虑多种路径时则表现出较强的影响。能源价格的提高通过影响产出总量和产业结构产生了较强的能耗拉动效应,但却通过影响能源效率产生了一定的能耗抑制效应。此外,国内外能源价格的联动性低,价格传导受阻。样本区间内,国内能源价格对我国能源消耗的影响显著大于国外能源价格的作用;后者通过价格路径对我国能源消耗的作用短期内并不显著,长期则表现出了一定的抑制性。总体来看,国内外能源价格关联性越强（价差越小）,能源价格提升对于能耗总量的抑制作用越明显;我国能源价格的合理上升有利于节能降耗。

Comparison of the Regulatory Effects of Domestic and Foreign Energy Prices on Energy Consumption of China

Based on the energy prices of China and foreign countries, industry development and energy consumption of China in the period of 1978-2012, this paper analyzes the influen-cing paths, the static and dynamic effect of domestic and foreign energy prices on energy consumption of China through Granger Causality test, regulatory effect model and state space model. Firstly, it is found that there’s no direct causality between China’s energy price and energy consumption, but the former can impact on the latter through influencing output and energy structure. Meanwhile, there’s no significant causality between foreign energy price and the related variables except energy efficiency with a time lag effect. Besides, foreign energy price is the Granger reason of the change of domestic energy price when the time lag is 1. However, increasing the time lag weakens the guiding effect. Secondly, when a single path is taken into consideration, neither of the two prices has effectively influence on China’s energy consumption. However, when considering comprehensive paths, both prices have significant effect on China’s energy consumption. Rising energy price has obvious pulling effect on energy consumption through output and industrial structure on one hand; and has depressing effect on energy consumption through energy efficiency improvement on the other hand. Combining the output, structure, and efficiency paths, we find that the comprehensive energy saving effect of the two energy prices are -0.161 8 and -0.009 1, respectively. It shows that reasonable rising of energy price can reduce energy consumption to some extent. In the sample period, effect of domestic energy price is more significant than that of foreign energy price. The effect of foreign energy price on energy consumption through price transmission is -0.250 9, which indicates that the linkage between the domestic and foreign prices is weak and the price transmission is blocked. Thirdly, the effect of foreign energy price on energy consumption through price transmission is only -0.004 0 in short-term while -1.308 3 in long-term, which indicates a certain depressing effect on energy consumption. Fourthly, the effects of the two energy prices on China’s energy consumption are dynamic. Removing the results contradicted with the theory, the comprehensive effect of the domestic energy price fluctuates between -0.016 and -0.356. Besides, foreign energy price has positive effect on China’s energy consumption in most sample periods, which is inconsistent with the theory. However, through “price-price” path, we find the foreign energy price has energy saving effect to certain extent. The effect fluctuates between -0.065 and -0.038 9 and becomes stable after 2000. Overall, the narrower the spread of domestic and foreign energy prices, the bigger the depressing effect of a rising energy price on energy consumption. Effectively rising energy price is beneficial to energy saving. Our research is important for policy makers to establish effective energy-pricing policies. These policies can improve the linkage between foreign and domestic energy prices and then promote energy conservation.