近50a气候变化背景下我国玉米生产潜力时空演变特征

以2010年我国耕地空间分布遥感监测数据为基础,在1960—2010年的长时间序列气象数据、土壤数据等数据基础上,采用GAEZ(Global Agro-Ecological Zones)模型综合考虑光、温、水、CO2浓度、农业气候限制、土壤、地形等多方面因素,估算了中国玉米生产潜力,进而分析了近50 a来气候变化背景下我国玉米生产潜力的时空格局特征。研究表明:12010年中国玉米生产潜力总量是8.34×108t,玉米生产潜力空间差异显著,总体呈现东高西低的趋势,东北平原区的玉米生产潜力总量最高,达到1.97×108t,青藏高原区玉米生产潜力总量最小;2近50 a来中国玉米单产潜力和生产潜力总量整体呈现减少的趋势;3中国玉米单产潜力和生产潜力总量变化的区域差异较大,东北平原区的平均玉米单产潜力和生产潜力总量的增长趋势都最为明显,其他各区的变化趋势都相对较小。研究揭示了近50 a来气候变化背景下我国玉米生产潜力的时空演变特征,这为探究如何适应气候变化、提高中国玉米产量水平、科学指导玉米生产经营提供了科学依据。

Temporal and Spatial Variations of Chinese Maize Production Potential on the Background of Climate Change during 1960-2010

Based on the remote sensing data of arable land spatial distribution in China in 2010, and meteorological data, soil data and other data from 1960 to 2010, using GAEZ (Global Agro-Ecological Zones) model, we took into account of the light, temperature, water, CO₂ concentration, agro-climatic constraints, soil, topography and other factors to estimate Chinese maize production potential, and analyzed the spatial and temporal patterns of Chinese maize production potential caused by climate change in the past 50 years. Studies have shown that: 1) In 2010, the total production potential of maize in China is 834 million tons, and there are significant spatial differences of maize production potential, which gradually decreases from east to west; the total production potential of maize in Northeast China Plain is the highest, reaching 197 million tons; maize production potential in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is the minimum. 2) In the past 50 years both the maize production potential and total production potential of China showed decreasing trends. 3) The changes of maize production potential and total production potential in China have great regional differences. Northeast China Plain has the greatest increase of both the maize production potential and the total production potential; changes in other districts are relatively smaller. This study reveals the temporal and spatial variations of Chinese maize production potential on the background of climate change in the past 50 years. It provides a scientific basis for exploring how to adapt to climate change, how to raise the level of Chinese maize production and how to guide maize production and management.