1961—2010年广西气温变化对全球变暖的响应

利用广西88 个气象站1961—2010 年的年平均气温和年极端最高、最低气温数据,运用GIS 技术、气候倾向率以及Mann-Kendall 突变检验方法对广西近50 a 气温的时空变化特征及突变特征进行分析。结果表明:在全球变暖影响下, 近50 a 广西全区年平均气温和年极端最高、最低气温总体上均呈上升趋势,其中年平均气温和年极端最低气温的气候倾向率均达到了极显著水平;年平均气温和年极端最高气温的突变时间分别为2001 年和2003 年,均比极端最低气温(1984 年) 晚了近20 a 左右;年极端最高和最低气温存在非对称变化。时空分布图表明,区域平均值忽略了研究区域内的差异,尽管近50 a 来广西气温区域平均值的总体变化呈上升趋势,但不同时期各地区间气温变化的趋势和幅度各有差异。

Responses of Temperature Change in Guangxi to Global Warming during 1961-2010

The spatial and temporal variation characteristics of temperature were analyzed by using GIS technique, climatic inclination rate and Mann-Kendall catastrophe test, based on the annual average temperature, annual extreme maximum and minimum temperature of 88 meteorological stations in Guangxi from 196l to 2010. Under the global warming, the annual average temperature, annual extreme maximum and minimum temperature in Guangxi had an increasing trend, and the climate inclination rate of annual average temperature and extreme minimum temperature reached a significant level; the abrupt change of annual average temperature and extreme maximum temperature occurred about 20 years later than the extreme minimum temperature's abrupt changes. Asymmetric changes were observed in the annual extreme maximum and minimum temperature. The spatial and temporal variation distribution showed that: regional average ignored the differences in the area, even though nearly 50 years the overall change of regional average temperature is rising, yet the temperature in different areas and periods had differences in trend and range.