基于IAD延伸决策模型的农户耕地休养意愿研究

基于IAD延伸决策模型,通过1 004个农户样本数据的二元Logistic整体回归及分组回归分析发现：农户耕地休养意愿同时受到户主特征及家庭概况变量、耕地休养规则变量、休养环境与市场变量和认知改革变量的影响。农户生境的耕地依赖性制约了耕地休养;曾撂荒农户和未撂荒农户在4个方面变量,尤其是休养规则偏好上存在显著差异。曾撂荒农户倾向于自由度高、政府遴选权力低的休养规则,未撂荒农户更倾向于补偿标准高、有一定决策自由度的休养规则;在IAD语境下的进一步讨论表明以多元模式为代表的休养规则可能有效改善耕地质量,但在整个耕地休养的动态过程中,需要注意区分不同参与主体,选择性地允许农户参与构建相关规则,从而促进耕地休养的可持续性。

Study of Farmers’ Willingness for Land Fallow Based on IAD Extension Decision Model

The large-scale decline of cultivated land resources in China has become a serious threat to the sustainable development. Land fallow can effectively improve the quality of farmland and repair the ecological environment, and it is an important means to optimize the allocation and utilization of cultivated land resources in many countries and regions. Land fallow is a systematic project, which needs to be carried out at the national level for the overall planning of space and time sequence. The study on the farmers’ willingness and preference of the rule can effectively reduce the system cost. Based on the extension framework of Elinor Ostrom IAD model, we designed the variable system of farmers’ willingness for land fallow. The results of binary Logistic regression model with the 2015 survey data of 1 004 farmers indicated that farmers’ willingness for land fallow was influenced by household characteristics, procedures and rules, market environment and cognitive reform. Farmers would not agree with land fallow for the reason of their dependence on the land. As for procedures and rules, we found that farmers would like to sacrifice a certain degree of land to obtain higher subsidies or lower the difficulty of obtaining subsidies. The Logistic regression showed significant difference in the variables between farmers who had at least abandoned land once and who had never abandoned land, especially in their preference for rules. The farmers who had ever abandoned land tended to adopt the rules with high degrees of decision-making freedom and low government regulation, while the farmers who had never abandoned land preferred high subsidies. However, the classification results showed that both groups of farmers did not favor coercive rules. In addition, the higher the scale of the non-agricultural production and the more yearn for urban life, the higher the probability was that the farmers who had abandoned land agreed to land fallow, and the more land subcontracted, the lower the probability they agree to land fallow. As for the farmers who had never abandoned land, the higher their income were and the more they were satisfied with farmland policy, the higher the probability of their agreeing to land fallow was. As the distance of their land to the city center increase, the probability of their agreeing to land fallow decreased. To further discuss in the IAD context, the rules represented by multivariate model could protect the land quality effectively, but in the long run the government should pay attention to the difference between players, and allow farmers to participate in making relevant rules optionally, so as to promote the sustainability of land fallow.