反舰导弹命中精度预测与评估

目的解决反舰导弹命中精度受试验航区及靶场试验环境等客观条件制约,难以通过飞行试验得到客观全面评估的问题。方法在对影响反舰导弹命中精度的主要因素进行分析的基础上,利用实际环境条件下的飞行试验数据,构建基于偏最小二乘回归的命中精度模型,实现对反舰导弹各种使用环境条件命中精度的定量评估。结果在构建基于偏最小二乘回归的命中精度模型后,可以实现对90°发射扇面角、20 m/s侧风以及300 km最大射程等实际试验无法考核的边界使用环境条件下反舰导弹的命中精度进行定量评估。结论通过实例分析表明了方法的有效性和可行性,可以实现有小样本条件下对反舰导弹命中精度的评估。

Hit Accuracy Forecast and Evaluation of Anti-ship Missile

Objective The paper aims to solve issues such as limitations of objective conditions of range test environment which constrains the hit accuracy of anti-ship missile and difficulty in obtaining an objective and comprehensive evaluation by flight test. Methods Based on analysis of main factors that influence the hit accuracy of anti-ship missile, hit accuracy model was built based on partial least-squares regression to quantitatively evaluate the hit accuracy under various environmental conditions of using anti-ship missile. Results This model could be used to quantitatively evaluate the hit accuracy of anti-ship missile under boundary conditions of 90 degrees emission sector angle, 20 m/s crosswind and 300 km maximum range when the boundary using condition was unable to be evaluated practically. Conclusion Examples show that this method is effective and feasible to evaluate the hit accuracy of anti-ship missile in the case of small sample.