A reliability index for models |
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Authors: | Richard W. Leggett Lynn R. Williams |
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Affiliation: | Department of Mathematics, Indiana University at South Bend, South Bend, IN, U.S.A. |
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Abstract: | Since the prediction of environmental changes depends heavily on mathematical models, environmental planners have a definite need for a general test that can be easily applied to determine the reliability of a model or to choose between available models. In this paper a ‘reliability index’ for a model is defined. This index is a number k ? 1 which is determined from a set x1,x2,…,xn of model predictions and a corresponding set y1,y2,…,yn of observations. One interpretation of the index k is that the model predictions agree with observations, in some sense, within a factor of k. The index k is defined using an intuitive, geometric approach and is justified through agreement with another index developed using statistical techniques. Examples are given for a model which predicts the atmospheric movement of radon-222 originating from a concentrated source of radium-226, such as a uranium tailings pile. |
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