资源枯竭城市转型发展绩效评价及障碍因子诊断——以湖北大冶为例

转型发展绩效评价及障碍因子诊断,是资源枯竭城市实现可持续发展的重要基础及依据。根据转型发展的内涵,从经济发展、民生改善、资源利用、环境整治、产业转型五个方面构建评价指标体系,采用改进的TOPSIS方法,以湖北大冶市为例,评价2007-2016年转型发展的绩效并诊断障碍因子。结果表明:(1)大冶转型发展取得了显著成效,十年转型发展绩效分值均在0.9以上,总体呈两个阶段:2007-2010年为转型初期,产业接替阶段,发展绩效不稳定,由2007年的0.9976升至2008年的0.9998,2010年下滑至0.9098;2011-2016年为稳定转型发展期,绩效稳步提升,由0.9142升至0.9458。(2)影响大冶转型发展的主要障碍因子排序十年一致,障碍度从强到弱依次为:矿山地质灾害隐患点数量、城镇登记失业率、高技术产业增加值占GDP比例、工业固体废物综合利用率、农村居民人均可支配收入和地方财政一般预算收入。根据评价结果,提出了大冶市今后转型发展的工作建议。

The rational assessment of developing transformation and obstacle diagnosis for resources exhausted cities :A case study of Daye,Hubei

The performance evaluation of transformation and the diagnosis of obstacle factors are important basis for sustainable development of resource-exhausted cities. Based on the connotation of transitional development, this paper constructed an evaluation index system from the aspects of economic development, improvement of people’s livelihood, resource utilization, environmental remediation and industrial transformation. The improved TOPSIS method was used to evaluate the rationality of transitional development and obstacle factors of Daye city in Hubei province from 2007 to 2016. The results show that:(1) Daye city has made remarkable achievements in transitional development, and the performance evaluation scores of the 10-year transformation are above 0.9 from 2007 to 2016. Two phases are identified, 2007-2010 and 2011-2016. The first stage witnessed the beginning of the transition, and industrial succession, and the performance was unstable, from 0.9976 in 2007 to 0.9998 in 2008, and fell to 0.9098 in 2010. The second stage is a period of stable transformation, and the performance of transitional development was steadily improved, during which evaluation scores increased from 0.9142 to 0.9458.(2) The main obstacle factors affecting the transformation and development of Daye are consistent in the ten years. The order of obstacle degree of factors from strong to weak is: the number of hidden danger points of mine geological disasters, urban registered unemployment rate, the added value of high-tech industry to GDP, and the comprehensive utilization of industrial solid waste, per capita disposable income of rural residents and general budgetary revenue of local finance. Based on the evaluation results, the work proposal for the future transitional development of Daye city was put forward.