利用模糊集理论评价公路客运站安全管理工作

利用模糊集理论建立一种模糊综合评价方法来评价交通运输系统内部的公路客运站安全管理工作。分别通过评价语言变量和权重语言变量将评价指标体系的定性指标和定量指标及权重全部转化成三角形模糊数,克服定性与定量指标不具有可比性的缺点,使评价更客观、精确。基于最优度概念,将权重模糊评价矩阵转化成模糊单一评价矩阵,避免传统模糊数之间比较的复杂性和不精确性。考虑到评价者在模糊评价环境下对风险的态度,将乐观系数引入评价的过程。采用TOPSIS方法计算出评价方案的综合评价分数并进行排序。结合桂林市10个客运站安全管理工作评价实例,通过改变权重值对评价结果进行敏感性分析。方法概念清晰,计算过程直观与简单,评价结果公正与合理,不但可在交通系统内推广,同样也可适合于其他各领域模糊环境下的评价问题。

Assessment of Highway Bus Station by Fuzzy Set Theory

A fuzzy multi-criteria analysis (MA) approach based on fuzzy set theory is proposed to be used in evaluating safety management level of highway bus station. The evaluation process is more objective and accurate by means of fuzzy linguistic terms. Based on the concept of the degree of optimality of each alternative with respect to each criterion, a weighted fuzzy performance matrix is transformed into a fuzzy singleton matrix to avoid the complexity and unreliable comparison of fuzzy numbers. Considering the decision maker's attitude towards risk, the optimistic index is introduced into the evaluation process. According to the concept of TOPSIS, an overall performance index is obtained for each alternative. A case study on 10 bus stations in Guilin city and the sensitive analysis of different weights and risk attitude are conducted. The results showed that the MA approach would be feasible and effective to be used both in transportation system and other similar fuzzy cases.