农业综合开发投资不足的理性预期分析

为解决农业综合开发投资不足的问题，根据理性预期理论研究了投资预期不足的制度原因。与农业资源开发的巨大资金需求、农业可持续发展需求、提高农业综合生产能力的要求及提高国际竞争力相比，农业综合开发投资明显不足,投资预期不高是农业综合开发投资不足的重要原因，投资预期不足的制度原因是收益低、风险高，农业公共财政制度缺位，分级财政投资体制所产生的贫困地区财政紧张、土地产权制度和农村社会保障制度及金融制度缺陷等。应从建立健全农业公共财政制度框架下的农业综合开发投资机制及开展土地产权等农业基础制度创新和改革金融制度等方面健全农业综合开发投资预期机制。

RATIONAL EXPECTATION ANALYSIS ON INSUFFICIENT INVESTMENT IN COMPREHENSIVE AGRICULTURAL EXPLOITATION

To solve the problem of the long-term insufficient investment in comprehensive agricultural exploitation,this paper analyzed the institutional factor influencing the investment.There is a need to increase the agricultural investment in China so as to meet the sustainable agricultural development,and to improve the agricultural productivity and its international competence.By using rational expectation theory,this paper points out that insufficient investment is mainly due to investors' insufficient expectation,which in turn is mainly due to low profit and high risk,imperfect agricultural public institutions,graded finance institution,incomplete proper rights of cultured land,and insufficient rural social security institutions and banking institutions.There is also a need to improve the mechanisms for achieving a perfect public institution system for agricultural finance,and to secure proper rights of cultured land and rural society.