| PRE-ESTIMATE FOR THE CHANGE OF CLIMATIC VULNERABILITY TO AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION IN LOESS PLATEAU,CHINA |
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| 作者姓名： | Hou Yahong and Liu Wenquan |
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| 作者单位： | 1. Department of Atmospheric Sciences of Nanjing University，Nanjing 210008; 2.Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences，Beijing 100081 |
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| 摘 要： | Inrecentyears ,inthebackgroundofstrongglobalenvironmentalchange ,naturalvariationhastheaggravatingtendencyyearbyyearinChina .Additionally ,Chinahasahigheconomicgrowthrateandagreatpopulation ;humanactivitiesinhighriskareas (likeLoessPlateau)areexacerbated ;andbearingcapabilityagainstthedisasterisgenerallyvulnerable .Becauseofthosefactorsabove ,theeconomiclossescausedbythedisastershavebeenincreasing .Therefore ,ithasbecomethescientificbasisofestablishingaregionalsustainabledevelopmenttoprobein…
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PRE-ESTIMATE FOR THE CHANGE OF CLIMATIC VULNERABILITY TO AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION IN LOESS PLATEAU,CHINA |
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| Hou Yahong,and Liu Wenquan .PRE-ESTIMATE FOR THE CHANGE OF CLIMATIC VULNERABILITY TO AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION IN LOESS PLATEAU,CHINA[J].Natural Disaster Reduction in China,2003(4). |
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| Authors: | Hou Yahong and Liu Wenquan |
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| Institution: | Hou Yahong 1 and Liu Wenquan 2 |
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| Abstract: | In Loess Plateau, which has a vulnerable ecological condition, the influence of climatic change on agricultural production is great. Based on introducing the relative definitions of vulnerability and evaluations and schemes of climatic vuhnerability to agricultural production, this paper makes a preliminary evaluation on the vulnerable condition in 1997; and by using the relative results of GCM pre\|estimate, it estimates the possible changes of related index of the disaster; and estimates the future possible changes of climatic vulnerability to agricultural production in Loess Plateau. Its evaluation method and pre\|estimate results can provide a certain scientific basis to the decision of departments concerned. |
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| Keywords: | climatic change vulnerability agricultural production Loess Plateau |
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