2000年以来黄河流域土地市场化时空格局演变及驱动因素

基于土地市场交易结构的视角,测算2000-2016年黄河流域104个地级以上城市一级土地市场化程度,综合利用Global Moran's I、G^*_i指数空间统计模型对其时空格局演变特征进行分析,运用灰色关联度分析模型探究土地市场化时空格局演变的主要驱动因素。研究发现：2000-2016年,黄河流域土地市场化水平表现出先持续上升后不断下降的阶段性变化特征,呈现了“东高西低”的空间分异格局。黄河流域土地市场化水平整体具有显著的空间自相关性,土地市场化热点区域以下游主要城市为核心,经历了先加速蔓延、后缓步收缩的时空演进历程。黄河流域土地市场化水平的时空格局演变主要由经济发展水平、产业结构升级、固定资产投资、政府财政收支比、外商直接投资以及区位条件等因素共同驱动,但受我国社会经济发展的阶段性影响,各因素在不同年份的影响程度存在显著的差异性。

Spatio-temporal evolution and driving factors of land marketization in the Yellow River Basin since 2000

From the perspective of transaction structure, this paper measured the degree of the marketization of primary land market in 104 cities above the prefecture level of the Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2016, and analyzed its spatio-temporal pattern evolution by spatial statistical model such as the Global Moran's I and G^*_i index. Grey correlation analysis model was used to explore the main influencing factors of the spatial-temporal evolution of land marketization level in the study area. The results of this study showed that, from 2000 to 2016, the land marketization level of the Yellow River Basin continued to rise at first and then decreased constantly, presenting a pattern "high level in the east, but low level in the west", which showed significant periodic differences. The land marketization of the whole Yellow River Basin had significant spatial autocorrelation. After accelerated expansion, the hotspots area of land marketization centered on downstream major cities shrank slowly. Several factors, such as the level of economic development, upgrading of industrial structure, investment in fixed assets, government revenue and expenditure ratio, foreign direct investment, and location conditions, influenced the evolution of the spatial-temporal pattern of the land marketization level in the river basin. However, due to the impact of social and economic development of China, the influence degree of various factors significantly changed in different years.