环境规制对碳排放时空格局演变的作用路径研究——基于东北三省地级市实证分析

基于2005-2016年东北三省36个地级市面板数据,定性分析环境规制与碳排放的时空格局演变特征,并利用中介效应分析法定量研究环境规制对碳排放的影响及作用路径。结果表明：（1）从各城市对比来看,环境规制强度呈现出明显的市域差异,碳排放量呈先增加后减小态势。（2）从空间格局来看,环境规制强度呈现由北向南逐渐增强的态势,区域间差异逐渐增大。环境规制的高水平类型分布集中,城市数量最多;低水平类型均位于黑龙江省北部,城市数量最少。碳排放量的高水平类型集中分布在辽东半岛以及大庆市和吉林市等石油型、冶金型城市,低水平类型城市数量呈波动增加,主要分布在东北北部,且向南逐渐扩散。（3）东北三省严格的环境规制不仅直接抑制碳排放,也可以通过优化产业结构和精简粗放投资间接抑制碳排放,地方政府竞争则会减弱环境规制对碳排放的抑制效应。

The effects of environmental regulation on spatio-temporal carbon emissions patterns: Empirical analysis of prefecture-level cities in Northeast China

Based on the data of 36 municipal panels in the three provinces of Northeast China from 2005 to 2016, the spatial and temporal patterns of environmental regulation and carbon emission are analyzed qualitatively. And we use a mediation effects to analyze the influences of environmental regulation on carbon emissions quantitatively. The results show that: (1) The comparison of cities shows that there are obvious urban differences between different cities in the intensity of environmental regulation. The carbon emissions increased first and then reduced; (2) As for the spatial pattern, the intensity of environmental regulation shows a trend of increasing from north to south, and the differences between regions increased gradually. The high-level types of environmental regulation are centrally distributed, and most in cities. The low-level types of environmental regulation are found in the northern part of Heilongjiang Province, and the number of the low-level types is the smallest in cities. The high-level types of carbon emissions are concentrated in regions which are rich in oil and metal resources, such as Liaodong Peninsula and the cities of Daqing and Jilin. And the number of low-level cities has increased, mainly in the northeastern part of the region; (3) The strict environmental regulation in the three provinces of Northeast China not only directly restrains carbon emissions, but also indirectly restrains carbon emissions by optimizing industrial structure and reducing rough investment. Meanwhile, the competition between local governments would reduce carbon emissions of the environmental regulation.