中国北方农牧交错带气候变化特点及未来趋势——基于观测和模拟资料的综合分析

中国北方农牧交错带是中国生态文明建设的一个重点地区。准确评估其气候变化趋势对于该区域可持续发展至关重要。本文的研究目的是在揭示1971-2015年气候变化特征的基础上,分析区域2006-2050年气候变化趋势。为此,本文综合观测和模拟数据分析了区域1971-2015年的历史气候变化以及2006-2050年的未来气候变化。研究发现：1971-2015年,中国北方农牧交错带气候变化呈暖干化趋势,年均气温的增长速率为0.39 ℃/10 a,年降水量的变化速率为-4.60 mm/10 a。2006-2050年,区域气候变化将呈暖湿化趋势,区域总体年均气温的增长速率为0.20~0.50 ℃/10 a,年降水量的变化速率为1.49~15.59 mm/10 a。同时,如果不有效控制温室气体排放,区域气候系统的不稳定性将加剧。2006-2050年,随着温室气体排放浓度的不断增加,区域增温速率从0.25 ℃/10 a增长至0.48 ℃/10 a,降水变化速率从3.97 mm/10 a增长至14.58 mm/10 a。因此,需要高度重视中国北方农牧交错带气候变化的减缓和适应问题,以促进该区域的可持续发展。

Climate change and future trends in the Agro-Pastoral Transitional Zone in Northern China: The comprehensive analysis with the historical observation and the model simulation

The Agro-Pastoral Transitional Zone in Northern China (APTZNC) is one of the major regions of the ecological protection in China due to its sensitivity to climate change. Our objective was to understand the trend of the climate change in the APTZNC. The historical climate change from 1971 to 2015 and the future climate change from 2006 to 2050 in the APTZNC were analyzed by using the historical data and the simulated data. The climate change in the APTZNC showed a warm-dry trend from 1971 to 2005, with the annual average temperature rise by 0.39 ℃/10 a and the annual average precipitation decrease by 4.60 mm/10 a. From 2006 to 2050, the regional climate change will show a warm-humid trend. The annual average temperature will increase by 0.20-0.50 ℃/10 a, and the annual precipitation will increase by 1.49-15.59 mm/10 a. We also found that the regional climate system will be unstable if the greenhouse gas emissions were not controlled. From 2006 to 2050, along with the increase of greenhouse gas emission concentration, the regional warming rate will increase from 0.25 ℃/10 a to 0.48 ℃/10 a, and the precipitation change rate will increase from 3.97 mm/10 a to 14.58 mm/10 a. Therefore, we suggested that effective measures for mitigation and adaptation to the climate change are needed to guarantee the sustainable development of the APTZNC.