镇域经济发展与土地集约利用水平综合测度及其关联特征分析——以江苏省109个抽样乡镇为例

经济持续发展和土地集约利用是新型城镇化战略关注的重要问题,而长期以来对于小城镇发展道路的诸多争辩和关切也集中在发展规模、用地效率等。采用多因素综合评价法测度江苏省109个抽样乡镇的经济发展水平和土地集约利用水平,并借助相关分析等探讨二者关联特征。研究发现:（1）镇域经济发展水平与土地集约利用水平显著正相关（P<0.01）。人口规模增加对经济发展水平和土地集约利用水平提升的“指数增长”效应要明显优于建成区面积扩张带来的“线性增长”效应,在人口规模达到5万~6万后镇域经济发展水平和土地集约利用水平明显提升。（2）镇域经济发展水平与土地集约利用水平的关联度呈现差异化特征。苏南地区显著高于苏中和苏北,人口规模越大两者的关联度越高,全国重点镇的关联度高于非重点镇和乡,三产均衡发展型和工业主导型乡镇的关联度高,而农业主导型乡镇的关联度较低。上述研究发现对于镇域社会经济健康发展的启示在于要统筹布局、重点推进、提升活力,着力增强人口吸引力,达到人口门槛规模,进而促进三产融合与集约集聚发展。

Quantitative measurement of economic development and land use intensity and their correlation characteristics in 109 sampled towns of Jiangsu province

Township is an important regional unit for the realization of new urbanization and rural vitalization in the new era. Both sustainable economic development and land use intensity are major issues in the new urbanization stage. Many concerns about the healthy development of towns are focused on the efficiency of economic development and the scale of land use. Therefore, the multi-factor comprehensive evaluation method was used to measure the level of economic development and land use intensity of 109 sampled towns in Jiangsu province. Furthermore, the correlation characteristics between land use intensity and economic development were discussed based on correlation analysis. The results show that: (1) The correlation of economic development and land use intensity of sampled towns is significantly positive (r=0.841, P<0.01), the better the economic development, the more intensive the land use. The "exponential growth" effect of increasing population size on economic development and land use intensity is more significant than the "linear growth" due to the expansion of built-up area. After the population size of towns reaches roughly 50 to 60 thousand, the level of economic development and land use intensity would accelerate significantly. (2) In terms of the average scores of economic development and land use intensity in different types of towns, as in economic regions, Southern Jiangsu > Central Jiangsu > Northern Jiangsu; in terms of development types, national key towns > non-key towns > xiang (township, a type of towns in China, more similar to rural community); as for industries, secondary industry > tertiary industry > balanced development industry > primary industry. (3) The degree of correlation between the two parts presents a differentiated feature. Southern Jiangsu has a significantly higher degree than Central and Northern Jiangsu; the larger the population in size, the higher the correlation between the two parts. However, the correlation caused by the increased built-up of towns is not obvious. Besides, the correlation degree of the national key towns is significantly higher than that of the non-key towns, and the correlation degree of balanced development industry and industry-oriented townships is relatively high, while that of agriculture-oriented townships is the lowest. The implications for the healthy development of towns is that the towns should focus on the coordination of plans, polarized development, enhance the attraction to population, and reach the ideal population threshold.