华北地区能源及交通行业对极端天气的敏感性分析

选取1987─2010年华北五省市区(北京、天津、河北、山西、内蒙古)代表极端天气的HDD(采暖度日)、CDD(降温度日)和P(降水距平百分率)3个指标,通过建立Cobb-Douglas和超越对数2类生产函数,分析极端天气对华北五省市区的能源、交通2个行业产值影响的敏感性. 结果表明:CDD、P对2个行业产值的影响较小,HDD的影响较大. 能源行业产值对HDD、CDD及P的静态敏感系数最大值分别为0.29、0.10、0.07,表明这3个指标对能源行业产值的影响依次降低；交通行业产值对上述3个指标的敏感系数同样也依次减少. 动态敏感性分析表明,能源消费结构和交通运输方式决定了CDD、P对五省市区2个行业产值的影响较小,而HDD的影响相对较大且年际波动也大,即冰雪、寒潮对能源、交通2个行业产值的影响程度远大于高温热浪、洪涝、干旱等极端天气. 山西交通行业产值对极端天气的敏感性在五省市区中表现最为显著,HDD、CDD和P每增加1%,该省交通行业产值将分别变化-0.11%、0.11%、0.03%. 敏感性分析结果与五省市区极端天气事件的分布和2个行业产值的损失相吻合. 

Analysis of Sensitivity of Energy and Transportation Industries to Extreme Weather in Northern China

Abstract:Based on the Cobb-Douglas and trans-log production functions, and using the heating degree days (HDD), cooling degree days (CDD), percentage of precipitation anomalies (P) as well as energy and transportation production indexes, the sensitivity to extreme climate change of energy and transportation industries in five provinces (Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei Province, Shanxi Province, Neimonggu) in Northern China were analyzed. The results showed that energy and transportation industries were slightly impacted by CDD and P, and were significantly affected by HDD. In the energy industry, the maximum values of HDD, CDD and P were 0.29,0.10 and 0.07, respectively, which were the same as those in the transportation industry. CDD and P slightly impacted industrial value due to the energy consumption structure and transportation mode, while HDD greatly influenced them in Northern China. This indicated that ice, snow and cold waves have more seriously affected the energy and transportation industries than high temperature, heat waves and floods, drought, and other extreme weather. The most significant differences of HDD, CDD and P in the transportation industry occurred in Shanxi Province, where a 1% increase of HDD and CDD and P caused output changes of -0.11%, 0.11% and 0.03% in the transportation sector, respectively. The values of sensitivity were associated with extreme climate change and its losses in Northern China.