Opening new institutional spaces for grappling with uncertainty: A constructivist perspective |
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Institution: | 1. State Scientific-Research Institute of Physiology and Basic Medicine, Timakova Street 4, Novosibirsk 630117, Russia;2. Novosibirsk State University, Pirogova Street 2, Novosibirsk 630090, Russia;3. Institute of Cytology and Genetics of Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Prospekt Lavrentyeva, 10, Novosibirsk 630090, Russia;1. Department of Psychology, Zhejiang Sci-Tech University, Hangzhou, China;2. School of Psychology, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, China |
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Abstract: | In the context of an increasing reliance on predictive computer simulation models to calculate potential project impacts, it has become common practice in impact assessment (IA) to call on proponents to disclose uncertainties in assumptions and conclusions assembled in support of a development project. Understandably, it is assumed that such disclosures lead to greater scrutiny and better policy decisions. This paper questions this assumption. Drawing on constructivist theories of knowledge and an analysis of the role of narratives in managing uncertainty, I argue that the disclosure of uncertainty can obscure as much as it reveals about the impacts of a development project. It is proposed that the opening up of institutional spaces that can facilitate the negotiation and deliberation of foundational assumptions and parameters that feed into predictive models could engender greater legitimacy and credibility for IA outcomes. |
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