水上事故溢油漂移轨迹预测模型研究与应用

近年来,国内外海上溢油事故频发,不仅造成巨额的经济损失,同时也对海洋及近岸海域生态系统造成了巨大危害,构建科学、可靠的海洋溢油模型对于溢油事故的处置应对、预警预报都具有十分重要的科学和现实意义。基于EFDC（Environmental Fluid Dynamic Code）、＂油粒子＂溢油轨迹和风化模型,构建了海上事故溢油漂移轨迹预测模型。通过对实际溢油事故的模拟对比证明,相对于基于对流扩散方程的传统溢油模型,＂油粒子＂算法更直观,模拟的油膜轨迹、形态更贴近实际过程。

Study and Application of Oil Spill Trajectory Model

Based on environmental fluid dynamic code（EFDC） model,oil particle and weathering model,an oil spill trajectory predictive model was proposed in this paper.Through a real spill case simulation,it is concluded that oil particle model is proved to be more realistic and accurate in simulating spill trajectory and morphology,as compared with traditional spill models based on advection and diffusion formulation.