Space-time discounting in climate change adaptation |
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Authors: | Seth D Baum William E Easterling |
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Institution: | (1) Department of Geography, Pennsylvania State University, 302 Walker Building, University Park, PA 16802, USA;(2) Rock Ethics Institute, Pennsylvania State University, 201 Willard Building, University Park, PA 16802, USA |
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Abstract: | Discounting is traditionally interpreted as the technique for comparing the values of costs and benefits which occur at different
points in time. It endeavors to incorporate how humans trade off values to be received in the future versus value received
immediately into economic analysis. Interpreted as such, discounting neglects important spatial influences on how values are
compared, thereby hindering cost-benefit analyses of climate change adaptation. In this article, we present new theory on
space-time discounting and use it to analyze aspects of how humans adapt to climate change. Three climate change adaptation
cases are considered. First, analysis of crop indemnity payments to farmers shows that failure to discount across space and
time yields inaccurate evaluations of adaptation projects. Second, adaptation efforts of the Commonwealth of Nations show
irregular patterns of international cooperation that suggest spatial discounting of adaptation which are not found in temporal
discounting. Third, the nexus between climate change, migration, and conflict shows how various forms of space-time discounting
can influence whether climate change and migration will lead to conflict. Collectively, these cases demonstrate the analytical
power of the space-time discounting theory and also show how the complexity of climate change adaptation can challenge and
strengthen this theory. Finally, this article’s analysis demonstrates that proper discounting must include space as well as
time. |
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