Linking atmospheric circulation to daily precipitation patterns over the territory of Bulgaria

An eight states non-homogeneous hidden Markov model is developed for linking daily precipitation amounts data at a network of 32 stations broadly covering the territory of Bulgaria to large-scale atmospheric patterns. At each site a 40-year record 1960?C2000 of daily October?CMarch precipitation amounts is modeled. The atmospheric data consists of daily sea-level pressure, geopotential height at 500 and 850?hPa, air temperature at 850?hPa and relative humidity at 700 and 850?hPa on a 2.5?×?2.5 grid based on NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data set covering the Europe-Atlantic sector 30W?C60E, 20N?C70N for the same period. The first 30?years data are used for model fitting purposes while the remaining 10?years are used for model evaluation. Detailed model validation is carried out on various aspects. The proposed model reproduces well the rainfall statistics for the observed and reserved data whereas the identified states are found to be physically interpretable in terms of regional climatology.