生态安全格局约束下长株潭都市圈建设用地演变模拟与管控

为探索生态安全格局下区域可持续发展模式，选取长株潭都市圈为研究对象，通过遥感数据识别2000—2020年建设用地变化情况，采用综合生态重要性评估模型和MCR（minimal cumulative resistance）模型构建都市圈生态安全格局，基于FLUS模型（future land use change scenario simulation model）设置自然发展(ND)、核心生态块保护(CEP)、生态安全格局约束(ESPR) 3种建设用地模拟情景，在模拟结果的基础上划定长株潭都市圈城镇开发边界。结果表明：2000—2020年长株潭都市圈建设用地扩张迅速，且由急速无序扩张转为缓速集中扩张；利用综合生态重要性评价得到极重要性生态用地共计2 649.54 km²，筛选得到生态源地共计1 204.38 km²，占研究区总面积的13.97%，并构建出长株潭都市圈综合生态安全格局；在ND、CEP、ESPR 3种情景模式下，2030年长株潭都市圈建设用地规模分别达到1 345.88、1 345.79和1 284.94 km²。基于ESPR情景划定城镇开发边界范围，可有效实现土地经济和生态效益的最大化，并为该地区的生态保护和土地利用规划提供参考。

Simulation and control of the evolution of construction land in Changzhutan metropolitan area under the constraints of ecological security pattern

With the rapid development of urbanization, the contradiction between construction land and ecological land has become increasingly prominent. Controlling the expansion of urban construction land from the perspective of ecological security is the embodiment of ecological priority and green development in land and space planning in the new era. Changzhutan metropolitan area was selected as the research object, and the changes in construction land from 2000 to 2020 were identified through remote sensing data. The comprehensive ecological importance assessment model and the minimal cumulative resistance (MCR) model were used to construct the ecological security pattern of the metropolitan area. Based on the future land use change scenario simulation (FLUS) model, three construction land simulation scenarios of natural development (ND), core ecological block protection (CEP), and ecological security pattern restriction (ESPR) were set up. And the urban development boundary of Changzhutan metropolitan area was delineated on the basis of the simulation results. The results showed that from 2000 to 2020, the construction land in Changzhutan metropolitan area expanded very rapidly, and gradually changed from rapid and disorderly expansion to slow and concentrated expansion. By using the comprehensive ecological importance evaluation, it was concluded that the extremely important ecological land was 2 649.54 km², the ecological source area was 1 204.38 km², accounting for 13.97% of the total area of the study area, and the comprehensive ecological security pattern of Changzhutan metropolitan area was constructed. Under the three scenarios of ND, CEP and ESPR, the scale of construction land reached 1 345.88 km2, 1 345.79 km2 and 1 284.94 km2, respectively. The delineation of urban development boundaries based on ESPR scenarios could effectively maximize land economy and ecological benefits, and provide references for ecological protection and land use planning in the region.