资源型城市复杂因素耦合的系统动力学分析

针对煤炭型资源城市转型及其如何可持续发展问题,建立了资源型城市系统动力学模型,该模型主要由人口、经济、资源以及环境4部分耦合组成,通过调整煤炭回采率等9个控制变量,进而预测了城市的4种发展情景;最后,以抚顺市为例,验证了模型的真实性。研究表明,资源型城市是人口、经济、资源和环境等因素耦合的复杂系统;该资源型城市系统动力学模型的平均相对误差在8%以内;综合分析各种发展情景,情景Ⅳ在人口、经济、资源和环境方面均具有较好的综合表现;预计到2015年该情景下,抚顺市人口总量、工业和服务业增加值、耕地面积、原煤资源总量、废气污染量分别将达到219.536万人、1103.310亿元、788.813亿元、89 579 hm²、1926亿t以及8.321×102、1926亿t以及8.321×10⁷万Nm7万Nm³。

System Dynamics Analysis of Complex Factors Coupled Resourcebased City

Based on problems of transformation and sustainable development for resource-based city,the system dynamics model of the resource-based city was proposed and the model mainly consists of 4 coupled parts,including population, economy,resource and environment.And then 4 development scenarios were predicted by controlling 9 variables such as coal recovery radio.Taking Fushun,Liaoning Province as an example,the validity check of the model was done.Results indicated that the resource-based city was a complex system,which was coupled with population,economy,resource and environment factors,average relative error of the model was within 8%.The development scenarioⅣwas more preferable in each aspect including population,economy,resource and environment respectively.The population,gross industrial output value,gross tertiary industrial output value,agricultural acreage,total coal and exhaust gas emission of Fushun would be 2.195million,1.103×10~(11)yuan,7.888×10~(10)yuan,8.958 hectares,1.926×10~8tons and 8.321×10~(11)normal cubic meters respectively by 2015 in that scenario.