我国燃煤电厂PM2.5减排潜力预测与分析

为研究燃煤电厂在燃煤发电机组结构优化调整和不同末端控制措施条件下PM_2.5的排放情况,以2012年为基准年,设计了分阶段、分地区不断优化的控制情景(基准、适中、加严和最严情景),并依据《大气细颗粒物一次源排放清单编制技术指南(试行)》建立的减排潜力模型对2017年、2020年和2030年我国燃煤电厂PM_2.5减排潜力及空间分布进行预测分析. 结果表明:通过燃煤发电机组结构优化调整,2017年、2020年和2030年我国燃煤电厂PM_2.5排放量与调整前相比可分别减少3.62×104、8.52×104和24.43×104 t,但相对于基准年而言,PM_2.5排放量并未减少；进一步结合末端控制措施优化进行控制,PM_2.5最大减排潜力(相对于基准年而言)可分别达到59.42×104±7.83×104、82.83×104±5.82×104和81.89×104±6.76×104 t,最高减排比例分别达到66.5%±8.8%、92.8%±6.5%和91.6%±7.6%. 我国各省(市/区)燃煤电厂PM_2.5减排潜力与其煤耗量和采取的控制措施有关,燃煤量越大,控制措施越严格,则减排潜力越大. 京津冀、长三角和珠三角地区燃煤电厂在实现超低排放,即最严情景下2017年PM_2.5减排潜力分别为5.93×104、12.04×104和4.70×104 t；2017年、2020年和2030年这3个区域PM_2.5总减排潜力分别为22.68×104、22.36×104和22.07×104 t. 内蒙古、江苏、山东、广东、河北和山西等地在实施超低排放后,其PM_2.5减排潜力均超过4×104 t,并且在全国范围内实施超低排放可显著降低我国燃煤电厂PM_2.5排放量. 

PM2.5 Emissions Reduction Potential from Coal-Fired Power Plants in China

Abstract: In order to study PM_2.5 emissions from coal-fired power plants under the conditions of power generation structure adjustment and different terminal control measures, a predictive model for PM_2.5 emissions reduction potential was established based on Guidelines for Source Emissions Inventory of Atmospheric Fine Particles (trial). In the model, we assumed two emission reduction countermeasures including power generation structure adjustment and optimization of end-of-pipe control measures. Four scenarios with strengthened control measures (i.e., benchmark, moderate regulation, strict regulation and ultra-strict regulation) were investigated with respect to different time periods and regions. With the model, emission reduction potentials and spatial distributions of PM_2.5 from Chinese coal-fired power plants in 2017,0 and 2030 were predicted. The results showed that, compared with those without power generation structure adjustment, PM_2.5 emission reductions with power generation structure adjustment in coal-fired power plants were 3.62×10⁴,8.52×10⁴ and 24.43×10⁴ tons in 2017,0 and 2030, respectively. Nevertheless, PM_2.5 emissions still increased compared with those in 2012. When combined with optimum end-of-pipe control measures for further PM_2.5 emission reductions control, the largest reduction potentials in 2017,0 and 2030 were 59.42×10⁴±7.83×10⁴,2.83×10⁴±5.82×10⁴ and 81.89×10⁴±6.76×10⁴ tons, respectively, with the corresponding highest reduction rates of 66.5%±8.8%, 92.8%±6.5% and 91.6%±7.6%. Emission reduction potentials of the provinces had a close relationship with coal consumption from coal-fired power plants and control measures; the greater the amount of coal, with more strict control measures, the greater the potential of emission reduction. If ultra-low emissions technology were implemented, the emissions reduction potentials would be 5.93×10⁴,2.04×10⁴ and 4.70×10⁴ tons, respectively, in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions. The total emissions reduction potential of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions would be 22.68×10⁴,2.36×10⁴ and 22.07×10⁴ tons, respectively, in 2017,0 and 2030 after ultra-low emissions were implemented. Emissions reduction potentials of Inner Mongolia, Jiangsu, Shandong, Guangdong, Hebei and Shanxi provinces could also be more than 4×10⁴ tons if ultra-low emissions were implemented. The results showed that nationwide implementation of ultra-low emissions could significantly reduce PM_2.5 emissions from coal-fired power plants in China.