中国履行斯德哥尔摩公约淘汰硫丹的社会经济影响

通过构建化学品风险管理SEA(社会经济影响分析)方法学,结合中国硫丹生产、使用及替代技术状况的调研,对中国履约淘汰硫丹的社会经济影响进行了分析. 结果表明:中国5 a淘汰情景下的总成本为5 007.2×104元,其中产业经济成本为4 852.2×104元,管理成本为155.0×104元,沉没成本约为651.0×104元；10 a淘汰情景下的总成本为2 748.5×104元,其中产业经济成本为2 507.6×104元,管理成本为240.9×104元,而沉没成本约为651.0×104元. 硫丹淘汰对现有硫丹原药生产企业会产生一定的经济及化工生产链影响,但总体经济影响不大. 对履约淘汰硫丹的主要利益攸关方、就业影响和消费者福利等因素的分析表明,除对硫丹长期集中使用的棉花种植者构成一定的短期影响外,中国履约淘汰硫丹产生的社会影响较小. 其中,5 a淘汰情景比10 a淘汰情景可减少约2 000 t硫丹环境排放量,具有更显著的环境和健康效益. 因而,建议中国采用5 a淘汰情景履约淘汰硫丹,研究成果可为国家硫丹履约行动计划的制订和实施提供参考. 

Socio-Economic Analysis of Endosulfan Phase-Out for China to Implement the Stockholm Convention

Abstract: Based on the production, usage and replacement of endosulfan, the economic and social impacts caused by different control methods (phase-out over 5 years or over 10 years) were calculated by socio-economic analysis(SEA), which was built by synthesizing the relevant international guidelines for SEA, assessment cases and national conditions of chemical management. The results indicated that the total costs would be 50.072 million RMB for the 5-year phase-out scenario and 27.485 million RMB for the 10-year phase-out scenario. For phase-out over 5 years and 10 years, the industrial economic costs would be 48.522 million RMB and 25.076 million RMB, and management costs would be 1.550 million RMB and 2.409 million RMB, respectively. The sunk cost would be 6.510 million RMB.The economic costs under the two scenarios have little impact on the whole industry. For social impacts, the influence on stakeholders, employees and end-consumers could be negligible except for the main cotton growing areas with endosulfan in intensive use. Furthermore, the phase-out over 5 years would reduce about 2000 tons of endosulfan than over 10 years. Simultaneously, the phase-out over 5 years would avoid more exposure of relevant workers and the public. The environment and health benefits could be transformed to monetized benefits to affect the evaluation results. In conclusion, the present study proposes that the phase-out scenario over 5 years would be an optimal strategy in China.