基于闽台对比的福建耕地变化趋势演绎

闽台因其区域自然背景及历史文化的相似性和经济发展时序递差性成为区域对比研究的理想对象之一。利用闽台相关统计资料对比显示,闽台耕地变化共同呈现出先增后减、时有波动、总体减少的特点,但台湾耕地的先增后减时序后移,并且减少的总趋势较缓。以各市县平均耕地产出计算,福建新增耕地质量低于被占耕地质量,而台湾正好相反。文章最后通过对福建2010年耕地面积的多元回归预测以及闽台耕地对比演绎,说明福建要实现耕地保护目标,除了依靠严格的耕地保护政策外,依靠农业以及非农业的发展,提高现有耕地综合生产力更为重要。

Changing Trend of Cultivated Land in Fujian Province Based on a Comparative Analysis and Illation between Fujian and Taiwan

Comparative study of LUCC between Fujian and Taiwan could be a good case for the stu-dy because of their geographical proximity and their historical and cultural similarity.Fujian and Taiwan have gone through and are in different economic development phases.Now,Taiwan is in the stage of post-industrialization and Fujian is in the middle stage of industrialization.By using the official statistics,quantitative changes of cultivated land in Fujian and Taiwan were analyzed. The results showed that these two provinces seemed to have the same characteristics of cultiva-ted land changes,i.e.,increase at first then followed by decrease, and the general tendency was decrease.However,the phase of increase at first then followed by decrease in Taiwan happened somewhat later in the whole process,if compared with Fujian.Additionally,the speed of the cultivated land's decrease was slower in Taiwan.Based on calculating of the yield per ha in all the cities and counties in Fujian and Taiwan,the quality changes of cultivated land were analyzed.The results revealed that quality of occupied cultivated land was better than reclaimed cultivated land in Fujian,but Taiwan was opposite to Fujian,which was effected by the Farmland Re-planning Policy in Taiwan.The agricultural acreage of Fujian in 2010 was forecasted by Multi Linear Regression method,its changing trend in Fujian was deducted based on a comparative analysis between Fujian and Taiwan.In order to realize sustainable use of cultivated land in Fujian province,it is rather important to raise specific productivity of cultivated land by increasing investment both in capital and in agricultural technique,in addition to strict management regulations for land use.