基于CLUE-S模型的重庆市主城区土地利用情景模拟

以重庆市主城区为研究区,采用120m×120m栅格大小的数据为模拟基准,借助CLUE-S模型、情景分析法、SPSS软件及ArcGIS10.1软件建立了数量变化和空间分布变化相结合的不同情景下土地利用/覆盖变化的动态模拟模型,并对研究区不同情景下的土地利用/覆盖动态变化进行了模拟,模型综合考虑各种宏观驱动因子与土地利用变化之间的关系,较全面地考虑了多种土地利用/覆盖变化驱动因子,并利用SPSS软件进行相关性分析,确定了各因子的回归模型,提高了模拟结果的精度,通过对已有数据的模拟及精度分析,整体模拟精度达86%以上,在一定程度上反映了该模型在研究高分辨率土地利用/覆盖变化方面有很好的适应性,对土地利用/覆盖变化的复杂性研究和相关部门对土地布局、规划方面具有一定的参考价值。模拟结果表明:到2030年湿地、人工用地、林地将增加,耕地和其它用地减少,草地在不同的情景下均有稍微的增加,耕地和人工用地是变化最大的两种类型,随着时间的推移耕地和林地面积不断接近甚至持平,研究区西部及西南部变化比较明显。

LAND USE SCENARIO SIMULATION OF THE MAIN CITY OF CHONGQING BASED ON THE CLUE-S MODEL

Land use change is one of the main research subjects of global environmental change and sustainable development. Land use models are useful for disentangling complex socio-economic and biophysical factors that influence the rate and spatial pattern of land use change, and for estimating the impacts of land use changes. Furthermore, models can support the exploration of future land use change under different scenarios and conditions. Taking the Chongqing metropolitan area as a case, we used 120 m × 120 m raster data and the SPSS and ArcGIS 10.1 software to construct a dynamic simulation model in different scenarios of land use/cover change. The CLUE-S model, which is based on comprehensive considerations on the basis of natural and human factors, can simulate small-scale land use change scenarios with characteristics of integrity, openness, spatiality and competitive efficiency. Firstly, 6 key driving factors, including elevation, slope (0°-5°, 5°-15° and >15°), distance to rivers, distance to roads, distance to local financial revenue and so on, were identified by using logistic stepwise regression method; Secondly, land use data in 2000 and 2005 were used respectively to simulate the spatial pattern of land use in 2005 and 2010 for the main city of Chongqing. Lastly, the simulated land use map in 2010 was compared with the actual land use map in 2010 to validate simulation results. The model considers various macro driving factors and the relationship between the land use change and consider the various driving factors of land use/cover change. The SPSS software is used to determine the various factors from the regression model, in this way the precision of the simulation results are improved. The overall simulation accuracy was achieved to more than 86%, suggesting that the CLUE-S model has a good applicability in simulating land use change in the main city of Chongqing and can be used to predict future land use change. The CLUE-S model can provide a scientific basis for land-use planning and urban planning in the future. The simulation results show that, by 2030, wetland, artificial land, forest, cultivated land and other land present a decreasing trend. In contrast, grassland is slightly growing in all scenarios. Cultivated land and artificial land present the most significant changes. With time, cultivated land and forest land area are increasingly close in terms of total area.