浅埋型矿井涌水量预测预报的灰色模型

矿井涌水量预测 ,对矿井安全及正常生产都至关重要。矿井涌水量预测采用的常规方法对各含水层的水文地质参数依赖性较大 ,而对各因素之间的影响程度难以区分和把握 ,因此 ,在预测预报中的精度较差 ;而采用灰色理论则具有高度的概括性 ,可以把各种不确定因素 ,统统用一个简单的“灰数”来表示 ,并且预测精度高而简单实用。笔者在分析浅埋型矿井涌水量的构成要素的基础上应用灰色系统理论对其涌水量进行了预测 ,其方法与结果对推动矿井水文地质工作有一定的现实意义和指导作用。

Grey Model for Predicting and Forecasting the Amount of Gushing Water in Shallow Coal Layer

To predict the amount of gushing water is crucial for mining safety and normal production in coal mine. The routine method used was pretty much dependent on hydrogeological parameters from various water layers. It was very difficult to differentiate and deal with the influence of different factors resulted in poor precision of prediction and forecast. However,Grey Theory is a succinct summary,which could use a simple “Grey Data” to represent all indefinite factors. The result showed high precision,besides;it was easy-to-use and practicable. Authors exemplified this model in shallow coal layers;the results obtained would provide a realistic guidance to promote hydrogeological works in coal mine.