我国工业危险废物产生量的预测研究

采用灰色系统GM(1,1)和GM(1,2)模型,对我国工业危险废物产生量的变化趋势进行了预测研究。根据过去几年我国危险废物产生量的统计数据,在不考虑其它影响因素的的情况下,采用GM(1,1)模型,预测2010年我国危险废物将达到2432万t;在考虑到工业生产总值影响因子的情况下,采用GM(1,2)模型,预测2010年我国危险废物将达到2686万t。预测结果表明今后我国工业危险废物的产生量将增加很快,可供环境管理部门作参考。

Predicting Generation of Industrial Hazardous Waste in China

The analysis approaches of grey system model GM(1, 1) and GM(1, 2) are used to predict generation of industrial hazardous wastes in China. The generation of industrial hazardous wastes will reach 24.32 million tons in 2010 by GM (1, 1) forecast model without considering other impact factors, while total national generation of hazardous waste will be up to 26.86 million tons by adopting GM (1, 2) forecast model if the factor of industry output value influencing on hazardous waste generation is considered. In conclusion, the national generation of industrial hazardous waste will be increased rapidly in recent years and the results provide scientific basis for environment management.