农业旱灾脆弱性评价--以北方农牧交错带兴和县为例

基于区域自然灾害系统理论,构建了农业旱灾灾害系统及其脆弱性评价指标体系,建立了农业旱灾脆弱性综合评价模型,指出农业旱灾脆弱性评价是一个过程性评价:灾前-灾中强调区域农业生产系统的易损性,灾中-灾后强调区域里的人应对旱灾的适应性.以地处北方农牧交错带的兴和县为例,进行了农业旱灾脆弱性评价,结果表明:农牧交错带的农业旱灾脆弱性在县域尺度上主要受农牧用地比例的影响,在农户尺度上取决于非农牧收入比例的大小,所以合理、有效的农牧结合发展和非农牧产业发展有利于降低该地区的农业旱灾脆弱性.

Assessment of agricultural drought vulnerability: taking Xinghe County in farming-pastoral zone in North of China as a case

Based on the theory of regional natural disaster system,this paper sets up agriculture drought disaster system and its vulnerability assessment index system,establishes synthetical assessment model of agriculture drought vulnerability and points out that agriculture drought vulnerability assessment is a process: it emphasizes frangibility of regional agriculture production system before disaster and adaptability of regional farm houses after disaster.Agriculture drought vulnerability assessment is carried out through taking Xinghe County as a case study,which is located in the typical area of the farming-pastoral zone in the North of China,and the result shows that agriculture drought vulnerability of the Farming-pastoral zone is mainly influenced by the proportion of farming and pastoral areas on county scale and by the proportion of the non farming-pastoral income on farm house scale.Thereby,to combine farming and stock raising development and develop the non farming-pastoral industry reasonably and effectively are the two key points of reducing agriculture drought vulnerability in this area.