| 昆明市东川区农业旱灾风险区识别研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 田敏,聂素芬,刘菲,陈余萍,柴钰祥. 昆明市东川区农业旱灾风险区识别研究[J]. 灾害学, 2011, 26(1): 36-42 |
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| 作者姓名： | 田敏 聂素芬 刘菲 陈余萍 柴钰祥 |
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| 作者单位： | 云南大学资源环境与地球科学学院,云南,昆明,650091 |
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| 基金项目： | 云南省科技计划项目社发(应基面上)(2007D016M) |
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| 摘 要： | 昆明市东川区是云南省农业旱灾危害较为严重的区域之一。利用2000-2007年东川区各乡镇历史灾情等数据资料,应用风险分析理论、效用理论、因子-成份分析方法等理论方法,在分别研究致灾风险度、承灾体易损性及地域人群对农业旱灾心理反响等基础上,构建了东川区农业旱灾风险评价模型。初步揭示出东川区农业旱灾风险度呈现出自南向北、自西向东逐渐增强的空间态势;识别出极高风险区、高风险区、中风险区和低风险区等4个农业旱灾风险区;发现东川区各地农业旱灾综合风险度、致灾风险度、承灾体易损度以及地域人群对旱灾的心理响应值等指数之间普遍存在着明显的正相关。
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| 关 键 词： | 农业旱灾 致灾特征指数 旱灾易损度 心理响应值 风险区 东川区 昆明市 云南 |
A Study on Identification of Risk Zones of Agriculture Drought Disaster in Dongchuan,Kunming |
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| Tian Min,Nie Sufen,Liu Fei,Chen Yuping,Chai Yuxiang. A Study on Identification of Risk Zones of Agriculture Drought Disaster in Dongchuan,Kunming[J]. Journal of Catastrophology, 2011, 26(1): 36-42 |
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| Authors: | Tian Min Nie Sufen Liu Fei Chen Yuping Chai Yuxiang |
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| Affiliation: | Tian Min,Nie Sufen,Liu Fei,Chen Yuping and Chai Yuxiang(College of Resource,Environment and Earth Science,Yunnan University,Kunming 650091,China) |
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| Abstract: | Dongchuan is prone to agricultural drought disasters in Yunnan.According to the historical disaster data of the townships in Dongchuan from 2000 to 2007,application of risk analysis theory,the utility theory,factor-component analysis and other theoretical approaches,and based on detailed valuation of the agricultural drought hazard-formation risk degree,the agriculture hazard-affected bodies vulnerability and the psychological response of the local populace to agricultural drought disaster respectively,the ... |
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| Keywords: | agricultural drought hazard-formation feature index drought disaster vulnerability degree psychological response value risk zone Dongchuan District Kunming City Yunnan Province |
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