铁路运输安全事故灰色预测方法研究

近年来 ,我国铁路运输发展迅猛 ,尤其是列车运行多次提速 ,列车运行密度加大 ,对铁路运输安全管理不断提出了新的要求。依靠科技进步 ,尽量防止或减少安全事故的发生 ,要应用安全信息技术 ,使安全管理人员对铁路运输安全现状及未来事故发展趋势有所了解 ,提高安全防范意识及事故处理能力 ,同时还要不断提高员工的安全意识和安全文化素质 ,这些方法对于提高安全管理水平 ,降低事故的发生 ,保护人民的生命安全与健康具有重要意义。铁路运输安全事故预测技术就可很好解决上述问题。笔者应用灰色预测理论 ,建立了铁路运输安全事故预测模型 ,开发了安全事故预测软件系统 ,并以某铁路运输企业为例 ,介绍了研制的灰色预测系统软件的应用效果

Study on Obscure Prediction Method for Railway Transportation Accident

In recent years, railway transportation has been developing swiftly, especially when the speed of trains becomes faster and the number of running trains becomes much denser, the safety management is facing new demand. Reducing the occurrence of accident, and making the administrators get familiar with current safety situation and its development trend so as to raise the safety consciousness and the ability to deal with various accidents have very important impact on reducing accidents and raising the level of safety management. The accident predicting system could well solve above mentioned problems. By applying the obscure predicting theory, a model for accident prediction and its relevant software are established. This software system is applied and exemplified in a railway enterprise with good result.