Greenhouse gas emissions along the rural-urban gradient

This paper investigates how land use relates to greenhouse gas emissions, using data sources that are readily available to municipal planners. It presents a causal framework linking settlement patterns to greenhouse gas emissions via landscape impacts (deforestation, carbon sequestration by soils and plants, urban heat island), infrastructure impacts (transportation-related emissions, waste management-related emissions, electric transmission and distribution losses) and buildings (residential, commercial). This is not a full accounting because it does not include impacts from industrial activities, agriculture and consumer behavior not related to land use, such as food consumption and air travel. Exploratory case studies of municipalities lying along a gradient of increasing population density suggest that per-capita carbon dioxide emissions vary widely, following an inverted ‘U’ shape, with post-war suburbs riding the pinnacle. Reflecting their central regional roles, municipalities with good jobs-to-housing ratios have higher per-capita emissions because they host both residential and commercial buildings. Buildings typically contribute more emissions than personal transportation. Vehicle-miles traveled per capita shrink most dramatically at very high population densities and where transit options exist. Changing land-use patterns is a political challenge because localism and outdated zoning ordinances subvert regional solutions. Technical fixes, especially green buildings, must be part of the solution.