基于RPN-BN的平台-隔水管系统遇内波风险分析

为保障内孤立波作用下的深水半潜式钻井平台-隔水管系统的安全，同时解决海洋平台系统设备失效数据的缺失问题，提出1种风险优先系数（RPN）与贝叶斯（BN）结合的定量风险分析方法。首先，基于故障树和安全屏障方法，建立平台-隔水管系统Bow tie模型和贝叶斯风险演化模型；其次，根据贝叶斯推断和风险优先系数中的事故发生频度估计，得到平台-隔水管系统失效事故的发生概率；最后，通过贝叶斯网络的逆向推理能力辨识内孤立波作用下引起平台-隔水管系统失效的主要风险节点，实现对平台-隔水管系统失效事故的定量风险分析。结果表明:RPN-BN法可应用于平台-隔水管系统遇内波的定量风险分析；加强对平台漂移量的控制，提高动力定位系统控制设备的可靠性可有效抵御内波对系统造成的影响。

Risk analysis of semisubmersible riser system under internal solitons based on RPN-BN method

In order to ensure the safety of deep water semisubmersible riser coupling system under internal solitons,and solve the data deficient problemof marine equipment,a new method of combination of Risk Priority Number(RPN) with Bayesian Network（BN）is raised for risk analyzing.Firstly,the Bow tie Model and Bayesian risk evolution model are built for semisubmersible riser system based on Fault Tree and Safety Barrier Method.Secondly,on the basis of occurrence evaluation of Bayesian inference and Risk Priority Number Method,probabilities of semisubmersible riser system accidents were obtained.Finally,the main risk nodes of the failure of the semisubmersible riser system were identified relying on the reverse reasoning capability of BN,to realize the quantitative risk analysis of semisubmersible riser system accidents.The results showed that the RPN-BN Method can be used to the quantitative risk analysis of semisubmersible risercoupling system under internal solitons; reinforcement of the control to drift distance of the platform,improving the reliability of control equipment of dynamic positioning system can resist bad effect internal solitonsproduced to platform effectively.