基于风险矩阵的水电站项目风险分级评估方法研究——以乌东德水电站为例

为了解决千万千瓦级巨型水电站项目建设过程的风险分析问题，以我国目前在建的千万千瓦级水电站重要项目—乌东德水电站为例，对水电站项目存在的隐患进行排查和梳理，找出影响安全施工的危险源，并采用风险矩阵法对其进行风险评估，将存在的风险按照其造成的影响后果不同分成可忽略（Ⅰ级）、可接受（Ⅱ级）、有条件可接受（Ⅲ级）和不可接受（Ⅳ）4个等级。研究结果不仅可用于查找、分析整个水电站项目建设过程中存在的重大风险，对风险进行有效、科学、简捷地评估，还可将各个风险点进行明确划分，对同类千万千瓦级巨型水电站的风险分析和安全管理工作具有参考和借鉴作用。

Study on risk classification assessment method of hydropower station project based on risk matrix Taking Wudongde hydropower station as example

In order to solve the problem of risk analysis during the construction process of giant hydropower station projects with 10 million kilowatts level,taking the Wudongde hydropower station being an important project of hydropower station with 10 million kilowatts level under construction in China as an example,the existing hidden trouble of hydropower station projects were investigated and sorted out to find out the hazard sources influencing the safe construction.Then the risk matrix method was applied to carry out the risk assessment,and the existing risk were divided into four levels as negligible (level Ⅰ),acceptable (level Ⅱ),conditional acceptable (level Ⅲ) and unacceptable (Ⅳ) according to the different influence consequences.The results can not only be used to investigate and analyze the major risk in the whole construction process of hydropower station project and assess the risk effectively,scientifically and simply,but also divide each risk point clearly,which have certain reference significance for the risk analysis and safety management work of similar giant hydropower station projects with 10 million kilowatts level.