地铁恐怖袭击下乘客疏散交通方式调查研究

为科学地认识地铁恐怖袭击事件下乘客疏散方式决策行为，基于随机抽样调查，采集乘客疏散交通方式选择意向数据，揭示不同地铁恐怖袭击场景下乘客心理特征及疏散交通方式选择行为差异。结果表明:地铁恐怖袭击事件引发乘客恐慌，恐慌程度与性别、年龄、文化程度、月收入、是否接受恐袭安全教育和通勤距离6个因素显著相关；除常规的行程时间、出行费用等因素外，安全性是乘客进行疏散交通方式选择的首要因素；在恐怖袭击事件导致地铁网络重要站点关闭情况下，仍有部分乘客选择地铁作为疏散交通方式，且选择比例随出行距离增加而增加；恐怖袭击事件的攻击方式影响乘客疏散交通方式选择，爆炸恐怖袭击下地面公交客流分担率高于其他方式，而持刀伤人事件下地铁客流分担率最高。

Investigation and study on evacuation traffic mode of passengers in metro under terrorist attack

In order to scientifically understand the decision-making behavior on the evacuation mode of passengers under the terrorist attack event,the data of choice intention on the evacuation traffic mode of passengers was collected through the random sampling survey,then the psychological characteristics and the difference in choice behavior on the evacuation traffic mode of passengers under different scenes of metro terrorist attack were revealed.The results showed that the metro terrorist attack event would cause the panic of passengers,and the panic degree was significantly related to six factors including the gender,age,education level,monthly income,with or without safety education on terrorist attack and commuting distance.In addition to the regular factors such as travel time and travel cost,safety was the primary factor for the evacuation traffic mode choice of passengers.In case of the closure of important stations in the metro network caused by the terrorist attack event,there were still partial passengers choosing the metro as the evacuation traffic mode,and the choice proportion increased with the increase of travel distance.The attack way of terrorist attack event influenced the evacuation traffic mode choice of passengers,the passenger flow sharing ratio of ground bus under the explosion terrorist attack was higher than those under other ways,while the passenger flow sharing ratio of metro under the stabbing event was the highest.