1种城市燃气管道风险评估模型及其应用研究

为科学评估燃气管道在复杂且敏感的城市环境中个人风险可接受情况，促进城市和谐稳定。以燃气管道泄漏射流火灾为事故场景，在常规评估基础上结合管道地区特点，构建基于公众可接受伤亡风险标准的评估模型，并通过案例分析，开展城市燃气管道个人风险定量评估研究。结果表明:我国城市燃气管道个人死亡风险、个人受伤风险可接受标准的建议值分别为5.00×10-6和2.74×10-5，其在一般情况下的公众可接受风险标准建议值范围为5.00×10-7~5.50×10-5和2.74×10-6~4.11×10-4；公众的伤亡风险感知偏差将直接影响风险评估结果，及时有效地对目标群体进行风险疏导以改善其风险认知，有助于避免公众风险感知偏差引发的负面社会效应。

A risk assessment model of urban gas pipeline and it’s application enlightenment

In order to scientifically assess the acceptability of individual risk for the gas pipelines in the complex and sensitive urban environment,and promote the harmony and stability of city,taking the jet fire caused by the leakage of gas pipeline as the accident scene,an assessment model based on the public acceptable risk criteria of casualties was constructed on the basis of conventional assessment combining with the regional characteristics of pipeline.The quantitative assessment research of individual risk for the urban gas pipeline was conducted through the case application and analysis.The results showed that the recommended values for the acceptable criteria of individual death risk and individual injury risk for the urban gas pipelines in China were 5.00×10^-6 and 2.74×10^-5,and the ranges of recommended values for the public acceptable risk criteria under general conditions were 5.00×10^-7-5.50×10^-5 and 2.74×10^-6-4.11×10^-4.The public risk perception deviation of casualties would directly affect the results of risk assessment.Carrying out the risk counseling on the target groups timely and effectively to improve their risk perception would help to avoid the negative social effect caused by the public risk perception deviation.