超大城市昼夜交通事故严重程度致因对比分析——以深圳市为例

为研究夜间交通事故严重程度致因，基于深圳市3年3 244起交通事故数据，获取昼夜交通事故分布的时空特征；进一步选取交通事故集聚的南山区、福田区、罗湖区的1 798起交通事故，以交通事故严重程度为因变量，以事故原因、日期、事故形态等10个因素为候选自变量，构建广义有序Logit回归模型，对比分析昼夜不同严重程度交通事故的影响因素。结果表明:路口路段类型、疲劳驾驶、事故日期在夜间模型参数估计值分别为0.493，-0.363，-0.309，而在日间模型表现为不显著，道路路面材料在日间模型参数估计值为-0.232，而在夜间表现为不显著；事故原因、道路横断面渠化方式等因素在日间和夜间所引起交通事故的严重等级均存在较大差异。

Comparative analysis on causes of severity of traffic accidents at day and night in megacities:taking Shenzhen as example

In order to study the causes of severity of traffic accidents severity at night,the spatial and temporal characteristics of the distribution of traffic accidents at day and night were obtained based on the data of 3244 traffic accidents in Shenzhen for 3 years.1798 traffic accidents in Nanshan District,Futian District and Luohu District where the traffic accidents were concentrated were selected,and a generalized ordered Logit regression model was constructed by taking the severity of traffic accidents as the dependent variable and taking 10 factors including the accident cause,date,accident type and others as the candidate independent variables.The influencing factors of traffic accidents with different severity at day and night were compared and analyzed.The results showed that the parameter estimation values of intersection section type,fatigue driving and accident date in the night model were 0.493,-0.363 and-0.309,respectively,while they were not significant in the day model.The parameter estimation value of road pavement material in the day model was-0.232,but it was were not significant in the night model.All the severity of traffic accidents caused by the factors of accident cause,road cross-section channelization pattern and others at day and night had large difference.