重大疫情下冷链应急物流协同配送决策博弈分析

为提高重大疫情下冷链应急物流协同配送效率，以尽可能短的时间满足疫区冷链物资需求，采用演化博弈理论构建冷链应急医疗物资协同配送决策的演化博弈模型，并将感染病毒风险系数及损失引入模型，分析冷链应急医疗保障部门与冷链物流企业配送策略选择问题。结果表明:在感染病毒风险系数一定的情况下，演化主体最终是否趋向高效策略和积极合作策略，与冷链应急医疗保障部门的投入运营维护成本、物流企业积极合作增值放大系数、积极合作的社会声誉及形象增值、正常运营经济收益等因素有直接关系。在运营维护成本增大和收益减少情景下，冷链应急医疗保障部门策略呈现波动性。研究结论可为重大疫情下冷链应急医疗物资协同配送提供参考。

Game analysis on collaborative distribution decision making of cold chain emergency logistics under major epidemic situation

In order to improve the efficiency of collaborative distribution for the cold chain emergency logistics under the major epidemic situation,so as to satisfy the requirements of cold chain supplies by the epidemic areas in the shortest possible time,the evolutionary game theory was used to build an evolutionary game model for the collaborative distribution decision making of cold chain emergency medical supplies.The risk coefficient and loss of virus infection were introduced into the model,then the problem of distribution strategy selection about the cold chain emergency medical guarantee department and cold chain logistics enterprises was analyzed.The results showed that when the risk coefficient of virus infection was constant,whether the evolutionary subjects tended to the efficient strategy and active cooperation strategy finally,the factors such as operation and maintenance cost of cold chain emergency medical ｇｕａｒａｎｔee department,value added magnification factor for active cooperation of logistics enterprises,the social reputation and image appreciation of active cooperation,and economic benefits of normal operations were directly relationship.Under the scenario of increased maintenance cost and reduced benefit,the strategy of cold chain emergency medical guarantee department presented the fluctuation.The results can provide certain reference for the collaborative distribution of cold chain emergency medical supplies under the major epidemics situation.