基于模糊层次分析法和证据推理的铁路应急预案评价研究

为解决铁路应急预案评价中存在的不确定性问题，提出基于证据推理的应急预案评价方法，从完整性、可操作性、针对性、协作性和可持续性5个维度构建应急预案评价指标体系；采用模糊层次分析法对指标权重进行计算，并通过证据推理对专家的评价数据进行证据合成，得到各预案评价等级分布；将各预案评价等级分布与评价效用结合，最终得到各预案评价排序。结果表明:实例分析表明，提出的评价方法对于处理不确定多属性的评价问题具有较强的可行性和适用性。

Research on evaluation of railway emergency plan based on Fuzzy AHP and evidence reasoning

Aiming at the uncertainty problem in the evaluation of railway emergency plan,a method of emergency plan evaluation based on the evidence reasoning was put forward,and an index system of emergency plan evaluation was constructed from five dimensions of integrity,operability,pertinence,collaboration and sustainability.The weights of indexes were calculated by using the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process method (Fuzzy AHP),and the evidence synthesis was carried out on the evaluation data of experts through the evidence reasoning.The distribution of evaluation grades for each plan was obtained and combined with the evaluation utility,and the evaluation ranking of each plan was finally obtained.The case study shows that the proposed evaluation method has strong feasibility and applicability for dealing with uncertain multi-attribute evaluation problems.